MLB Parlay for May 17: A Bet That Pays (+300)

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BMR’s top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Seattle vs. Toronto and Minnesota vs. Oakland. For reasons that I will explain, you should play both spread and total for this game.

Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Tuesday, May 17, 2022 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre

Who Is Pitching for Toronto?

Tonight, Toronto starts struggling pitcher Jose Berrios. This year, Berrios is suffering his worst numbers since his rookie year. His ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) were only worse as a rookie.

Moreover, his strikeout rate has never been so bad -- it was higher even in his rookie year -- while he is allowing the second-highest rate of home runs in any season in his career. Berrios' struggles were apparent in his first start of the season and they continue to surface in his most recent outings.

In his last two starts, Berrios has allowed a combined total of 11 runs. While one may try to find a basis for optimism in the fact that he returns home tonight after two road starts, his current home FIP (5.10) is nearly identical to his awful road FIP (5.15).

Jose Berrios Performance Overview:

  • Berrios throws a fastball, curveball, and sinker.
  • These three pitches make up close to 90 percent of his repertoire.  
  • In terms of frequency, his fastball is his favorite pitch. This is, above all, the pitch that opposing batters are feasting on. They are hitting .392 and slugging .647 against Berrios' fastball.
  • One aspect of this pitch that opposing batters exploit is its poor location. Heat maps show that Berrios often leaves his fastball in the more middle, dangerous parts of the strike zone.

I like Mariner batters tonight because they rank fifth in slugging .440 against Berrios' three favorite pitches from righties. Lookout, for example, for Ty France whose BA has never been better. France is a 2-for-3 lifetime against Berrios.

Who Is Starting for Seattle?

In contrast to Berrios, Mariner starter Logan Gilbert has improved greatly from last year to this one. One thing that Gilbert has done a great job of is limiting the long ball.

Gilbert has flexed his muscles, especially on the road. Seattle is 4-0 in his road starts, yielding +4.6 units.

On the road, Gilbert has yet to allow more than one earned run. His road success has persisted even when his opponent has matched up well against his pitches. The fact that Gilbert gets to pitch outside of Seattle tonight creates strong betting value for the M's.

MLB Pick: Mariners ML (+118) with BetOnline

Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics

Tuesday, May 17, 2022- 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum

Who Is Pitching for Minnesota? 

Minnesota starts Dylan Bundy tonight.  Bundy would love to return to his home ballpark where he has pitched excellently this season. He is coming off two starts, however, in which he was catastrophic. After allowing six earned runs in Tampa Bay, he allowed nine in lowly Baltimore.

Now he has to travel to the Oakland Coliseum where history suggests that we should see more struggles from Bundy tonight. In four career starts in Oakland, his ERA is 5.40.

Who Is Pitching for Oakland?

Oakland starts James Kaprielian. One noteworthy aspect of Kaprielian is that he tries to induce fly balls at an extremely high rate. This tendency is reinforced by the limited extent to which he induces ground balls.

Of course, the danger with fly balls is that, if the opposing batter hits them far enough, they become home runs. Perhaps the fact that Minnesota ranks ninth in home runs per game explains the aptitude with which it slugs against flyball pitchers.

Because the Twins are strongest -- as statistics such as OPS (on-base plus slugging) show -- against the type of pitcher Kaprielian is, I perceive value in their lineup tonight. 

Parlay Betting Prediction

Expect Seattle to upset Toronto on the road while the Twins and Athletics engage in a high-scoring affair. For the above reasons, I recommend parlaying the Mariners money-line with the Twins/A's over for your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Over 7 (-120) with BetOnline

MLB Parlay Picks

  • Mariners ML (+118)
  • Over 7 (-120)

Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+300) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.