MLB Parlay for July 21: A Bet That Pays (+571)

profile image of Rainman

Today’s baseball card is a short one, so let’s maximize the value with a parlay. The top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for Thursday’s baseball action and three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:

  • Texas vs. Miami
  • Detroit vs. Oakland (Game #1)
  • Detroit vs. Oakland (Game #2)

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for all three games. Feel free to parlay these bets at an online sports betting site.

Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins

Thursday, July 21, 2022 – 01:10 PM EDT at loanDepot Park

Who Starts for Texas?

Texas starts Jon Gray today. While Gray is coming off an excellent start, it doesn't make sense to speak of player form due to the length of the All-Star Break that players were subjected to.

Still, Gray is in a great spot today precisely because of the long pause. He last pitched on July 13.

In terms of ERA, he is at his best when he gets six or more days of rest in between starts as opposed to when he gets fewer rest days.

Gray vs. Marlin Batters

Primarily, Gray throws a fastball and a slider. These pitches make up just over 85 percent of his arsenal.

Gray merits optimism tonight because he matches up well against Marlin batters. They rank below average in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

Who Starts for Miami?

Miami starts Pablo Lopez today. Similar to Gray, Lopez is coming off some nice starts.

However, given the length of the All-Star Break, it is decisively important to know how he tends to perform after so many rest days. By far, Lopez is at his best when pitching off 6+ days of rest.

Lopez vs. Texas Batters

Lopez is reliable today also because he matches up well against Ranger batters. Primarily, he throws a fastball and changeup.

These two pitches are by far the ones he throws most frequently. Texas, however, ranks 23rd in slugging against his favorite pitches when facing a right-hander.


Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics

Thursday, July 21, 2022 - 03:37 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum

Who Starts for Detroit?

Detroit starts Tarik Skubal for today's afternoon game, which is game one of a doubleheader. Many bettors have already dismissed Skubal because of a rough patch that he was suffering.

However, Skubal is worth being a candidate to invest in because he has overcome this rough patch. He has yielded a sub-3.60 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in three of his last four starts.

Moreover, Skubal will be extra fresh today since he last pitched on July 13. Various stats show that he is at his best when he pitches off six or more days of rest.

Skubal vs. Athletic Batters

Additionally, Skubal matches up well against Oakland batters given the fact that he is a lefty and given his pitching arsenal. He has a strong level of variety in his arsenal, which helps him remain harder for batters to predict.

Primarily, he throws a:

  • Slider
  • Fastball
  • Sinker
  • Changeup

These four pitches make up nearly 93 percent of his arsenal. Oakland ranks 28th in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.

Who Starts for Oakland?

The A's start lefty youngster Zach Logue whom they recalled from Triple-A in order to pitch in this afternoon game. Logue has already begun a promising professional career for himself by thriving against the likes of Houston.

His best start, however, came against none other than Detroit. Back on May 11, he shut the Tigers out over seven innings.

One may rely on him to do well against the Tigers because he matches up well against them. They rank 27th in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.


Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics

Thursday, July 21, 2022 - 07:07 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum

Who Starts for Detroit?

For tonight's game, Detroit starts Garrett Hill. His high ERA is no matter of bad luck. Several things indicate that he is not ready for professional baseball.

While he possesses a pretty decent level of variety in his arsenal, heat maps show the frequency with which he locates pitches in the middle parts of the plate where batters are more likely to make strong contact.

The total posted by oddsmakers seems ridiculously low to me given the total absence of a basis for optimism for Hill.

Who Starts for Oakland?

While Athletic starter Frankie Montas is more proven than Hill, he merits pessimism tonight because of the spot in which he finds himself.

In his career, he is at his worst off six or more days of rest. Since he last pitched on July 3, one should expect him to be far removed from his best tonight.

Parlay Verdict

Expect low-scoring games in Miami and in Detroit during the afternoon. But the Tigers and Athletics will produce a lot of runs in the evening for our final MLB pick.

For the above reasons, parlay the "under," in the first two games and with the "over" in the second game of the Tigers-A's doubleheader.

Be sure to use our free trusty parlay calculator for your betting needs.

Parlay Picks

  • Rangers/Marlins Under 7 (-108)
  • Tigers/Athletics (Game 1) Under 7.5 (-118)
  • Tigers/Athletics (Game 2) Over 7 (-113)

MLB Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+571) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Heritage Sports logo
Three-Legged Parlay (+571)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.