Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. The NLCS between Philadelphia and San Diego continues today.
After winning last night, Philadelphia leads San Diego 1-0 in the series. Meanwhile, the Astros and Yankees begin their ALCS tonight. Houston is favored to win the series.
For reasons that I will explain, both games tonight are worth investing in. You should play the moneyline for the NLCS matchup and the run line for tonight’s ALCS game.
Feel free to parlay both bets at top-rated sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, October 19, 2022 – 04:35 PM EDT at Petco Park
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies today. Nola is unprofitable this season to back only because he suffered a stretch back in April and May in which Philadelphia lost eight games in a row in which he started.
But Nola is helping to make up for the deficit created by those losses. Philadelphia has won the last three games in which Nola started.
Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, Nola was posted as the underdog in two of those three games.
Dogging Nola is unjustifiably disrespectful toward him. Nola's most recent performances substantiate this claim, because he is enjoying excellent form.
He has allowed 0 earned runs in each of his last three starts.
Those starts took place against playoff-teams: he stymied the Astros, Cardinals, and Braves in consecutive starts, while lasting at least 6 innings every time.
Nola vs. Padres' Batters
Generally, the Padres' batters have awful track records against Nola. Two San Diego hitters, historically speaking, hit him well, though.
These two are Juan Soto and Wil Myers. But both batters merit pessimism tonight because they are performing much worse right now than when they hit Nola well.
Soto, for his part, is hitting .226 and slugging .258 so far in this postseason.
He has two extra-base hits in 45 total October at-bats.
Meanwhile, Myers is batting .115 and slugging .231 in this postseason.
Neither player poses a meaningful threat to Nola tonight.
One should expect Nola to thrive against San Diego's batters because he matches up well against them in view of the pitches he throws.
Primarily, Nola throws a fastball, curveball, sinker, and changeup. These four pitches combine to make up just under 95% of his arsenal.
Problematically for the Padres, they rank 23rd in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for San Diego?
Blake Snell starts for the Padres tonight. Snell is, by far, his team's least profitable pitcher to back.
So far, San Diego is yielding -12.8 units in his starts. Snell is repeatedly favored, and bettors have paid the price especially for backing him when he is favored.
When Snell is posted as the favored pitcher, the Padres are 8-10, yielding -9.3 units.
Snell vs. Phillies' Batters
This season, Snell faced Philadelphia twice.
It went poorly for him both times.
On May 18, he allowed three earned runs in 3.2 innings in Philadelphia.
Most recently, he conceded four earned runs in 5.2 innings on June 25 in San Diego.
It makes sense for Philadelphia to hit Snell well because Snell is a lefty and the Phillies excel against left-handed pitching.
Overall, as measured by slugging rate, Philly ranks sixth against left-handed pitching.
Moreover, they rank ninth in slugging against Snell's favorite pitches, the fastball, slider, and curveball, from lefties.
MLB Pick: Phillies ML (+112) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, October 19, 2022 - 07:37 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Who Starts for New York?
Jameson Taillon starts for the Yankees today.
He faced Houston once in the regular season. In that meeting, he allowed 6 earned runs and 2 home runs.
Taillon vs. Astros' Batters
Houston hitters have uniquely strong track records against Taillon. This proven history makes them especially reliable today.
Seven different Astro batters slug well over .650 in at least three career at-bats with Taillon on the mound.
Look out for all seven:
- Martin Maldonado
- Jose Altuve
- Christian Vazquez
- Yordan Alvarez
- Alex Bregman
- Kyle Tucker
- Aledmys Diaz
Who Starts for Houston?
The ever-reliable Justin Verlander starts for Houston today.
While he is coming off a rare tough outing, Seattle tends to hit Verlander hard, accruing 6 earned runs in two games against him.
Before facing Seattle, Verlander had allowed a combined total of 3 earned runs in six starts.
Verlander vs. Yankees' Batters
In the regular season, Verlander thrived at Yankee Stadium, allowing one earned run in seven innings.
His proven ability to thrive against Yankee batters supports the conclusion encouraged by his general consistency.
This conclusion, that we should expect him to collect the win tonight, is further supported by his comfort pitching against New York's best batters.
Crucially, he has Aaron Judge figured out. Judge is 2-for-14 with four strikeouts against Verlander.
MLB Pick: Astros RL -1.5 (+117) at Heritage Sports
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks in mind, expect strong wins from Philadelphia and Houston.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Phillies ML (+112)
- Astros RL -1.5 (+117)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+360) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.