Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Rays vs. Yankees and Dodgers vs. Brewers.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for the first game and the total for the second. Feel free to parlay these bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, August 17, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
How Are the Yankees Doing?
Because they play every or almost every day, teams often enter a rhythm, either a positive one or a negative one. Currently, the Yankees are entangled in a negative pattern. No matter who pitches for them, they are struggling to win games. They've won two of their last 13.
Because MLB oddsmakers aren't going to adjust their season-long numbers to account for what appears in the long run to be an anomalous stretch of performances, New York was favored for all but one of those games.
Most recently, their lineup is struggling. Yankees' batters have produced one run combined in their past three games, and they failed to eclipse 3 runs in each of their last seven contests. Their lineup is one active reason why New York is a terrible favorite to bet on.
Who Is Pitching for the Rays Today?
Corey Kluber, today's starter for Tampa Bay, is just the pitcher to prolong New York's hitting woes.
This might not seem to be the case given his current ERA, but his poor ERA masks a much better 3.44 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which reflects how well he's been pitching.
In particular, he has suffered from an opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play), which is high despite the fact that he's doing a great job of inducing soft contact while limiting hard contact.
Kluber Against Yankees' Batters
Kluber has a lot of experience pitching in Yankee Stadium, a venue that can be intimidating and generally difficult for pitchers to thrive in. In 13 career starts here, Kluber boasts a 2.33 ERA.
Part of Kluber's success against the Yankees owes to his strong matchup advantage against them. Accounting for the entire season, including the vast stretches during which they were hitting the ball magnificently, the Yankees rank 24th in slugging .382 against Kluber's favorite pitches from righties.
Kluber does have an unusual mix of favorite pitches. Primarily, he favors his cutter, sinker, and curveball. These three pitches combine for just under 90% of his arsenal. Since their hitting slump began on August 9, they're slugging .254 against these pitches from righties.
Who Is Pitching for the Yankees Today?
Domingo German starts for the Yankees tonight.
In a team filled with profitable starting pitchers, German has been costing his backers. New York is 1-4, yielding -3.1 units, in games in which German has started.
German Against Rays' Batters
Tampa Bay is not the team for German to start finding success against. In six career starts against this team, German suffers a 6.40 ERA.
Last year provided the most recent proof of German's unreliability in games against Tampa Bay.
Hence, active Rays' batters boast strong track records against German. Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi, and Yandy Diaz all slug well over .500 in at least five career at-bats with German on the mound.
MLB Pick: Rays ML (+126) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, August 17, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Who Is Pitching for the Dodgers Today?
Tony Gonsolin starts for the Dodgers tonight. Gonsolin had an incredibly successful start to his season, but perhaps he peaked, because, performance-wise, he has plummeted down to Earth.
In July, he suffered a 4.40 ERA. While he did thrive in his last two starts, those came against Kansas City and a slumping San Diego squad.
Tonight's opponent will be a vastly and uniquely tougher test for Gonsolin.
Gonsolin Against Brewers' Batters
Brewers' batters merit optimism because they match up superbly against Gonsolin given the pitches that he throws.
His fastball, split-finger, and slider account for 88% of his arsenal. Generally much more strongly built to handle right- than left-handed pitching, Milwaukee ranks third in slugging against Gonsolin's pitches from righties.
Who Is Pitching for the Brewers Today?
Eric Lauer starts for the Brewers tonight.
After conceding 7 earned runs in his last two starts combined against lineups that rank top-six against left-handed pitching, Lauer gets another tough test tonight.
Specifically, the Dodgers rank second against his favorite pitches from lefties.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-120) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
For your MLB picks, expect a strong win from Tampa Bay and a high-scoring slugfest between the Dodgers and Brewers.
For the above reasons, parlay the Rays ML and the Dodgers/Brewers Over. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Rays vs. Yankees: Rays ML (+126)
- Dodgers vs. Brewers: Over 8 (-120)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+314) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.