There are two intriguing matchups for today’s MLB NL Wild Card slate. Find out where I see value below.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, October 07, 2022 – 02:07 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals will send out their trade deadline acquisition of Jose Quintana. Quintana has a 3.66 xFIP over the last 30 days with 22.5% of strikeouts and 3.9% of walks.
The left-hander has also earned 51.4% of ground balls and has allowed just 18.9% of line drives over the last 30 days. He’s kept his wOBA down under .200 against both sides in the last month and has rarely allowed any extra-base hits in those months.
Today, he’ll take on a Phillies lineup that has struggled against lefties. Philadelphia’s lineup is hitting a .131 ISO and wOBA of .287 with 25.9% of strikeouts. They’ve also hit 44% of grounders and have walked only 8.2% of the time against lefties with their projected lineup in the last 30 days.
Only Jean Segura has a high ISO and wOBA against lefties in that Phillies lineup, holding a .318 ISO and wOBA of .414. Bryce Harper has struggled along with Kyle Schwarber. Both are left-handed power sluggers that haven’t hit lefties well recently.
Zack Wheeler will get the start for the Phillies. Since coming off the injured list, Wheeler has a 2.36 xFIP with 28.8% of strikeouts. He’s also walked just 1.9% of batters and has induced nearly 64% of ground balls in that time frame.
Like Quintana, Wheeler has kept his wOBA and ISO down against both sides of the plate. He’ll have more of a challenge against the Cardinals, as St. Louis doesn’t strike out nearly as often.
The Cardinals have struck out 15.5% of the time against righties using their projected lineup over the last 30 days. But like the Phillies, the Cardinals haven’t had much success offensively.
Against righties, the Cardinals are hitting a .164 ISO and woBA of .310 with nearly 46% of ground balls. The only consistently hot hitter is Albert Pujols, who has hit a .421 ISO and wOBA of .429 over the last 30 days against righties.
I’ll take the Under 7 in this game for my MLB picks.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
Friday, October 07, 2022 - 08:07 PM EDT at Citi Field
New York Mets
The New York Mets have elected to use Max Scherzer in the first game of the Wild Card series.
Scherzer has had a 3.02 xFIP in the last 30 days with 30.8% of strikeouts and 1.5% of walks. He’s allowing at least a .200 ISO to lefties and righties over the last 30 days but is taking on a Padres lineup that has hit a .131 ISO against righties over the last 30 days.
The Padres aren’t getting much production out of their lineup, hitting a .131 ISO and wOBA of .287 in the last 30 days against righties. Only Juan Soto has consistent numbers against righties over the last 30 days for the Padres, with an ISO of .230 and wOBA of .384.
San Diego Padres
Yu Darvish will take the hill for the Padres. He’s had plenty of success against the Mets this year. However, in the last 30 days, Darvish has had a 4.45 xFIP.
Still, he’s struck out 28.7% of batters and has walked under 5% of batters over the last 30 days. Darvish isn’t getting many ground balls and is giving up plenty of fly balls instead. Lefties have an ISO of .217 against Darvish over their last 75 plate appearances against him.
Meanwhile, the Mets are hitting a .163 ISO and wOBA of .353 against righties over the last 30 days with their projected lineup. They’ve also hit 24.4% of line drives as a group and have walked 9.5% of the time while striking out just 17.7%.
The Mets look much better on paper heading into Game 1, at home. I’ll take the Mets in this one.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (-150) at BetOnline
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