MLB National League Division Series Picks: Padres and Dodgers Meet for a High-Scoring Game 1

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Julio Urias #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP.

The San Diego Padres will look to keep their momentum after an NL Wild Card Series win over the New York Mets.

Now they’ll take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in a five-game series. Who will win the rivalry matchup in Game 1?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top-rated sportsbooks!

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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Tuesday, October 11, 2022 – 09:37 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

Padres vs. Dodgers Analysis

The San Diego Padres will get another crack at the Los Angeles Dodgers after defeating the New York Mets in the NL Wild Card round over the weekend.

The Dodgers dominated the Padres in the regular season and won the NL West by 22 games. They will have a home-field advantage, but other than that, everything else is equal for the most part.

The Dodgers will have their top starters going early in this series, while the Padres will pitch theirs later due to already pitching those guys in the NL Wild Card Series. When a team wins a division by 22 games, they should have a real advantage.

Los Angeles is the favorite at home for Game 1 of the NLDS between the Padres and Dodgers. Here’s our MLB pick and prediction on tonight’s game between the two rivals.

Who Starts for the Padres?

Mike Clevinger gets to start for the Padres; he hasn’t had the best of seasons. His analytics are weak, especially in the final month of the season. Clevinger finished his last 30 days with an xFIP of 6.50 and struck out just 11.5% of batters.

The right-hander only induced 36.2% of grounders and gave up 44.9% of fly balls in that 30-day window. Clevinger was worse against righties than lefties. Lefties had a .208 wOBA and ISO of .158 in their last 41 plate appearances against Clevinger.

However, righties hit a .476 wOBA and ISO of .293 against the right-hander in their last 46 plate appearances. The Dodgers’ lineup hasn’t been sensational recently.

They’re hitting a .151 ISO with a wOBA of .320 using their projected lineup against righties over the last 30 days. That’s nothing special.

Dodgers' Stats

Despite the weak numbers, Los Angeles has still minimized ground balls to 36.9% and have hit 22.7% of line drives. This is a big deal when you factor in Clevinger rarely earning strikeouts.

Only two players in Los Angeles’ lineup have hit below 20% of line drives against righties over the last 30 days. That’s Will Smith and Gavin Lux; the rest have.

Righties like Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, and Chris Taylor all have potential against Clevinger.

While Will Smith has struggled as a righty against righties, he’s still hit 48% of fly balls and can hit one out.

Who Starts for the Dodgers?

Meanwhile, Julio Urias will start for the Dodgers. He’s been much better than Clevinger analytically, holding a 4.10 xFIP over the last 30 days.

The left-hander also has struck out 23.1% of batters while allowing just 6% of walks in the same 30-day time frame.

In the last 30 days, Urias has earned 47% of grounders while giving up under 17% of line drives. If anything, he’s allowed some power to righties, giving up an ISO of .185, but that’s not too concerning.

Padres' Stats

The Padres have hit a .208 ISO and wOBA of .349 against lefties over the last month. Manny Machado, Brandon Drury, Wil Myers, and Austin Nola are hitting high ISO and wOBA numbers against lefties.

Meanwhile, most of the other batters not mentioned have limited strikeouts against lefties while hitting a high line drive rate. San Diego has hit grounders 40.8% of the time with their projected lineup but has also hit 20.7% of line drives.

The Padres already succeeded against Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, and put up plenty of runs in the final game against Chris Bassitt. The Padres are more than capable of scoring runs in this game too.

Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

The Dodgers haven’t been the best offense in the last 30 days. But in those 30 days, this team had already clinched a playoff spot and wasn’t nearly as aggressive.

The Dodgers team that we all remember will return offensively tonight against a pitcher with an xFIP that’s way too high.

On the other hand, we can’t doubt the San Diego offense. The Padres found ways to score against some of the best pitchers in baseball over the weekend.

They’ve got plenty of potential, with at least four hitters hitting a high ISO and wOBA against lefties in the last 30 days. Therefore, I’ll grab the Over 7.5 at even money in this one.

MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.