MLB National League Division Series Best Bets for Dodgers vs. Padres Game 3

profile image of testmultisiteuser
blake-snell-san-diego-padres-chicago-white-sox-aspect-ratio-16-9
Blake Snell #4 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the Chicago White Sox. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP.

San Diego and Los Angeles have each won game in this series so far. How will this tiebreaker go? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top-rated sportsbooks!

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest: BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool Opens for Registration


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

Friday, October 14, 2022 – 08:37 PM EDT at Petco Park

Dodgers vs. Padres Game 2 Analysis

The San Diego Padres did their job on Wednesday. The Padres defeated the Dodgers on the road to tie the NLDS at one apiece.

Now the Padres will look to earn wins at their home ballpark to earn a series victory.

The Padres have struggled to beat the Dodgers throughout the entire season. But a lot of things can change in the postseason.

Here are our MLB picks and predictions for the NLDS Game 3 between the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres.


Who Starts for the Padres?

Blake Snell will get the start for the Padres tonight. Snell struggled with his command and control in his first postseason start of the season against the Mets.

However, in the last 30 days, the left-hander has had a 3.65 xFIP with 33.6% of strikeouts.

His walks have reached nearly 11%, but Snell has limited line drives and ISO to both sides of the plate in the last 30 days.

Snell has been worse against lefties, giving up a .358 wOBA compared to a .210 wOBA to righties, despite being a left-handed pitcher.

Snell vs. Dodgers' Batters

The Dodgers figure to have two lefties in the lineup. That’ll be Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. Freeman has a .235 ISO against lefties, but Muncy has struggled to find much success other than walking 16% of the time.

The Dodgers are hitting a .159 ISO and wOBA of .266 against lefties over the last 30 days. The bottom half of the order is walking at a high rate, but the top of the order isn’t walking much at all against lefties.

Only Will Smith has a high wOBA and ISO against lefties for the Dodgers. Plus, Los Angeles has hit just 18.4% of line drives against lefties.

If Snell can limit the walks, he’ll have a great outing, especially knowing that the Dodgers have struck out 25.3% of the time against lefties with their projected lineup over the last month.


Who Starts for the Dodgers?

Tony Gonsolin will get his first postseason start of the year. He’s only projected to pitch about 75 pitches as he’s coming off an injury.

He pitched against nine batters before the regular season concluded. So he’s not available to go deep.

Still, Gonsolin finished the regular season with a 16-1 record. He also had a 2.14 ERA. However, his xFIP was over a four on the season.

Gonsolin vs. Padres' Batters

Anyway, the Padres have struggled against righties as of late. They’re hitting a .140 ISO and wOBA of .303 over the last 30 days against righties.

They’ve also struck out 24.4% of the time against righties with their projected lineup during the previous 30 days. But the Padres have hit 22.8% of line drives against righties and have walked nearly 10% of the time.

San Diego has more potential in this matchup offensively, especially at the top of the order. Only Soto has a high wOBA against righties, but the Dodgers will most likely pitch lefties against him once Gonsolin exists.

We’ll see how Los Angeles pitches to Soto with Machado behind him. Either way, this San Diego offense has more potential going up against righties or lefties in comparison to the Dodgers against a lefty like Snell.


Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Blake Snell had a terrific season pitching for the Padres this year. He didn’t have his command in his first start of the postseason, but he will more than likely be more comfortable on home field.

He’s struck out 33.6% of batters over the last 30 days and will face a Los Angeles lineup that continues to strike out against lefties at a very high rate. If Snell can keep the walks down, his pitch count will be lower, and he’ll be able to go deeper in this game.

I’ve got the Padres earning a win at home and like Snell to rack up the strikeouts. Again, it all comes down to his command. If he’s throwing strikes early and making the Dodgers whiff, he’ll be in great shape throughout the game.

I’m going to bet the Padres to win, and Snell to get Over 6.5. These are two separate bets and not a same-game parlay, but you could parlay these together if you’d like!

MLB Pick: Padres ML (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

BetOnline logo
Padres ML (+105)
Visit Site

MLB Pick: Blake Snell Over 6.5 K’s (-105) at BetOnline

BetOnline logo
Blake Snell Over 6.5 K’s (-105)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.