MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers to Win the World Series (+2000) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We’re only two weeks into the season, but the Milwaukee Brewers are already the sharp MLB pick to win the 2023 World Series.
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World Series Winner
Who’s going to win the World Series? Ask around, and you’re likely to hear the usual answers: the defending champion Houston Astros, the large-market Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees. But these teams don’t belong in your MLB picks. The Milwaukee Brewers are a different story. This quintessential small-market franchise is a +2000 outsider on the World Series odds board at Bovada as we go to press, with eight teams ahead of them on the MLB futures market.
Then you have the Minnesota Twins at +3000. They’re the American League equivalent of Milwaukee, except the Twins have actually won the World Series – twice, in 1987 and 1991. The Brewers have only made the Fall Classic once since their launch in 1969 (as the Seattle Pilots), losing the 1982 Series 4-3 to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Two Great Payout Opportunities
Either way, you’re looking at two teams from the two Central divisions in Major League Baseball who consistently get overlooked by the betting public. These are the kind of teams – and payouts – that you’re looking for when you make your baseball picks. The stats support their case.
Nate Silver’s crew at FiveThirtyEight project the Brewers (7-2, plus-4.35 betting units heading into Monday’s action) to win the Series 6% of the time, which works out to +1567 when you run it through the delightful BMR Odds Converter.
The Twins (6-3, plus-1.56 units), meanwhile, have been assigned a 4% chance of winning the title, which works out to +2400. You could and maybe should bet on both, but we’ll make Milwaukee our official World Series pick here at the ranch.
MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (+2000) at Bovada
American League Conference Winner
When it comes to the pennant races, Milwaukee and Minnesota presumably have similar betting value, although we don’t have projections from FiveThirtyEight to lean on this time.
Not to worry: FanGraphs has our back. Their playoff projections include each team’s chances of winning their League Championship Series, with the Brewers checking in at 9.4% in the National League, and the Twins 9.3% in the American League.
Run those percentages through the BMR Odds Converter, and you get +964 for Milwaukee and +975 for Minnesota. Sure enough, you’re getting bargain MLB pennant odds for both teams at Bovada, with the Brewers at +1000 and the Twins at +1600.
Choosing between the two is much easier this time that it was for the World Series futures. Taking the Brew Crew at +1000 only gives you a slight discount; taking the Twinkies at +1600 nearly doubles what would be considered a break-even payout, and that’s if you ignore the baked-in hold percentages with these baseball futures.
Smaller Bets You May Want to Consider
There are other contenders you might want to put in your pennant picks. Speaking of small-market teams, consider the Tampa Bay Rays; they’re available at +500 to win the AL pennant, and FanGraphs has their chances pegged at 19.8%, which translates to +405 using the Odds Converter.
You’re also getting a small bargain with the San Diego Padres at +425. Their projected chances of winning the NL pennant are 20.4%, or +390 for equivalent “American” odds. We’ll take the Twins out of this bunch, but again, there’s no reason not to bet on all these teams if you have the bankroll.
MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins (+1600) at Bovada
AL West Division Winner
In theory, the MLB Division futures should naturally have the most betting value of these three sub-markets. This is where casual fans are most likely to over-value the big-name teams and create ample betting value for everyone else – even the long shots that you should normally avoid on the World Series odds list.
Switching back to FiveThirtyEight’s projections, the Brewers (EVEN) still have betting value at 61% to win the NL Central, but the Twins (+110) are no longer viable at 41% to take the somewhat tougher AL Central.
Looking at the second-tier contenders, the Los Angeles Angels (5-4, minus-0.13 units) appear to be worth a flier at +500; FiveThirtyEight gives the Halos a 23% chance of winning the AL West, which is the same as +335 using the Odds Converter.
Moving to the third tier, we have the San Francisco Giants (4-5, minus-0.81 units) in the NL West. They won the division two years ago, and FiveThirtyEight likes them to do it again 9% of the time, or +1011 for equivalent American odds. That makes the Giants worth betting at +1200.
The Long Shots
Then you have the long shots: the Boston Red Sox (5-4, minus-0.29 units) and Arizona Diamondbacks (6-4, plus-5.57 units). Their division title chances stand at 6%, or +1567 for equivalent odds, so you can’t go too wrong taking either or both at +2500.
For the right blend of value and likelihood of getting paid, we’ll make the Angels our preferred choice among these MLB division picks – and as always, may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Los Angeles Angels (+500) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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