MLB Daily Picks: Best Moneyline, Run Line and Total for October 5

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Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels walks to the plate to bat in the top of the first inning against the Oakland Athletics. Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images/AFP.

There are plenty of intriguing matchups for tonight’s MLB slate. Find out where I see value below.

I gave out my favorite moneyline, total, and run line bets for the slate! Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top-rated sportsbooks!

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros

Wednesday, October 05, 2022 – 04:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park

Team Analysis

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will send out Framber Valdez for today’s regular-season finale. The left-hander has a 3.15 xFIP in the last 30 days and has struck out 23.6% of batters in that time frame.

He’s kept walks down and is earning 66% of ground balls in the last month, which is usually unheard of.

Valdez also won’t give up many extra-base hits and will take on a Phillies lineup that has a .290 wOBA against lefties over the last 30 days.

It’s unclear on starting lineups up to this point, but the Phillies and Astros are both going to be making the playoffs. Neither team will be aggressive on the base paths. It’s more home runs or bust for these two teams today.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Astros have more power going up against Bailey Falter, who is another left-handed pitcher. Falter has a 4.09 xFIP in the last 30 days but he’s also allowing 33.8% of line drives while inducing only 33.8% of grounders.

Houston has hit a .225 ISO with a wOBA of .351. As a projected lineup, they’ve also limited grounders to under 40% and have hit line drives above 21% of the time.


The Moneyline Pick

Again, the lineups could look completely different than the regular lineups we’re used to seeing, but the Astros have more power and proved it last night with their 10-0 win over the Phillies.

So take the Astros on the moneyline for today’s game.

MLB Pick: Astros ML (-180) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Astros ML (-180)
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Wednesday, October 05, 2022 - 04:10 PM EDT at American Family Field

Team Analysis

Arizona Diamondbacks

Merrill Kelly will get the start for the Diamondbacks today. He’ll be looking for his 14th win of the year to close out another season for Arizona. Kelly was one of two starters for the Diamondbacks that had a great season.

But it wasn’t enough as Arizona won’t be making the postseason. Kelly has allowed a BABIP of .234 over the last 30 days.

Lefties have hit him well as of late, but the Brewers are struggling to get production out of their lineup recently.

Milwaukee has hit a .158 ISO and wOBA of .302 in the last 30 days against righties. Although they’ve walked 10.3% of the time in that time frame, they’ve also struck out nearly 26% of the time.

Milwaukee Brewers

Meanwhile, Corbin Burnes has a 2.47 xFIP in the last 30 days for the Brewers.

The former Cy Young winner has earned 29% of strikeouts and walked just 3.8% of batters.

He’s facing an Arizona lineup that has struck out nearly 26%.


The Over/Under Pick

The Diamondbacks don’t hit many line drives and have just one batter hitting a wOBA of above .340 in the last 30 days against righties. Let’s take the Under.

MLB Pick: Under 7 (-120) at BetOnline

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Under 7 (-120)
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics

Wednesday, October 05, 2022 - 04:00 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum

Team Analysis

Los Angeles Angels

Today’s the final Shohei Ohtani day of the year. Ohtani has a 15-8 record with a 2.35 ERA on the season. He’s also been one of the best hitters in the MLB this season.

He’s holding a 2.69 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out 33.7% of batters in that time frame. He’s also earned over 61% of ground balls and keeps fly balls down at a very high rate.

The A’s have a .142 ISO and wOBA of .307 against righties and will likely struggle against one of the best pitchers in the league.

Oakland Athletics

On the other hand, Ken Waldichuk will man the mound for the A’s. He’s holding a 6.18 ERA through the first portion of his career.

Los Angeles has hit a .257 ISO and wOBA of .357 with their projected lineup against lefties in the last 30 days.

The Angels have also stuck out just 15.4% of the time against lefties in that same time frame.


The Run Line Pick

I’ve got the Angels winning the final game of the season by multiple runs.

MLB Pick: Angels RL -1.5 (-125) at BetOnline

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Angels RL -1.5 (-125)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.