MLB Daily Picks: Best Moneyline, Run Line and Total for October 4

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Cole Irvin #19 of the Oakland Athletics pitches against the Los Angeles Angels. Michael Owens/Getty Images/AFP.

There are plenty of intriguing matchups for tonight’s MLB slate. Find out the MLB picks where I see value below.

I gave out my favorite moneyline, total, and run line bets for the slate! Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top-rated sportsbooks!

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Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics

Tuesday, October 04, 2022 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum

Team Analysis

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have been much better offensively over the last couple of weeks. Tonight, they’ll take on Cole Irvin of the Oakland Athletics. Irvin is a lefty with a 5.95 xFIP in the last 30 days. On the year, he’s got a 9-13 record with a 4.11 ERA.

Anyway, he’s struck out just over 15% of batters, but rarely gets ground balls and struggles to keep line drives down. In the last 30 days, righties have been hitting the lefty with a .394 wOBA and ISO of .228.

Meanwhile, lefties also have a .463 wOBA and ISO of .273 in the same time frame. He’s getting rocked. The Angels are also hitting a .237 ISO and wOBA of .348 as a projected lineup against lefties in the last 30 days.

Those numbers are thanks to big bats like Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Taylor Ward. Former all-star Anthony Rendon should also be back in the lineup after serving a suspension and rehabbing from injury.

Oakland Athletics

On the other hand, Michael Lorenzen will get his final start of the season. He’s struck out 27.7% of batters in the last 30 days.

He’s also induced nearly 47% of grounders and has limited line drives to slightly above 20%.


The Moneyline Pick

The A’s have a lineup with a .289 wOBA with 47.3% of grounders, and 17.8% of line drives over the last 30 days against righties.

I’ll take the Angels in this spot.

MLB Pick: Angels ML (-135) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Angels (-135)
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Tuesday, October 04, 2022 - 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field

Team Analysis

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks will give us one more Zac Gallen show this season.

Gallen has a 12-3 record with a 2.46 ERA. In the last 30 days, he’s holding a 2.86 xFIP with 33.9% of strikeouts and 4.1% of walks.

Milwaukee squandered their postseason chances and are likely defeated coming into this game. They’ve hit a .294 wOBA against righties over the last 30 days, which is way below average.

The Brewers have also struck out nearly 26% of the time against righties in that same time frame.

Milwaukee Brewers

On the other hand, Eric Lauer will take the mound for the Brewers. He’s still going to try and showcase what he’s capable of doing before the season concludes.

Lauer has struck out 33.3% of the last 48 batters, which is impressive. He’ll take on an Arizona lineup with a .103 ISO and wOBA of .232 in the previous 30 days.

This same lineup has also struck out 23.6% of the time against lefties and has walked just 6.1%.


The Over/Under Pick

Arizona’s not hitting lefties, and the Brewers will probably not be motivated offensively coming into this game.

Even when they were motivated, they couldn’t hit the ball well. Let’s take the Under 7.

MLB Pick: Under 8 (-120) at BetOnline

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Under 8 (-120)
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros

Tuesday, October 04, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park

Team Analysis

Houston Astros

Justin Verlander will look to put the finishing touches on his AL Cy Young campaign this season. Verlander is coming into this game with a 17-4 record to go along with a 1.80 ERA.

He’s had a sensational season and will want one more quality outing before heading into the playoffs.

Verlander has a 3.74 xFIP in the last 30 days and has struck out nearly 31% of batters with just 2.9% of walks.

Plus, you’d have to imagine that the Phillies will sit many of their regulars after a long night of celebrating last night.

Philadelphia Phillies

Meanwhile, the Phillies will pitch Ranger Suarez, who has a 4.48 xFIP with 17.6% of strikeouts in the last 30 days. He’s allowing some power to righties.


The Run Line Pick

Houston is hitting a .364 wOBA with their rightie against lefties, so I’ll take the Astros to get the two-run win over the Phillies.

MLB Pick: Astros RL -1.5 (+125) at BetOnline

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Astros RL -1.5 (+125)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.