MLB Daily Picks: Best Moneyline, Run Line and Total for October 1

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Max Scherzer #21 of the New York Mets reacts against the New York Yankees. Sarah Stier/Getty Images/AFP.


With a full slate of games on the horizon, we’ve put together the best moneyline, run line, and total for the Mets vs. Braves, Marlins vs. Brewers, and Phillies vs. Nationals.

There are plenty of intriguing matchups for today’s MLB slate. Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

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New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

Saturday, October 01, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park

The NL East is tied with five more days to go in the regular season. The Mets would win the tiebreaker, but ultimately, it comes down to these last five games of the season.

Team Analysis

New York Mets

The Mets and Braves have two more games scheduled for the weekend. Max Scherzer will take the mound for the Mets tonight.

Scherzer has a 2.60 xFIP in the last 30 days and has struck out 36.8% of batters in the previous 30 days. He’s also walked just 3.5% of batters and looks as dominant as ever lately.

The Braves are a boom or bust offense. We saw it last night when they struck out 11 times against Jacob deGrom but also hit three solo shots.

Atlanta’s lineup has now struck out 24.9% of the time against righties, and Scherzer should increase that rate a bit tonight.

Michael Harris is the only bat with consistent power in the Braves lineup against righties over the last 30 days.

Atlanta Braves

On the other hand, Kyle Wright will take the mound for the Braves. He’s a 20-game winner this year but has walked 10.1% of batters in the last 30 days.

He’s also allowed a .231 ISO to lefties and .332 wOBA to righties in the previous 30 days. Both of those numbers are above-average numbers and not particularly good for Wright.

The Mets are hitting a wOBA of .342 with their righties against righties, and while there’s little power from lefties from the Mets, there are still six lefties that can capitalize on Wright’s mistakes.


The Moneyline Pick

Take the Mets at -125 for your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Mets ML (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Mets ML (-125)
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Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Saturday, October 01, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at American Family Field

Team Analysis

Miami Marlins

Edward Cabrera will take the hill for the Marlins. He’s 6-4 with a 3.15 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, he’s holding a 5.74 xFIP with 10.7% of walks.

Still, he’s shut down lefties well but has struggled against righties, allowing a .422 wOBA and ISO of .370 in his last 57 plate appearances against them.

Milwaukee is only hitting a .169 ISO and wOBA of .316 against righties. They’ve also struck out 24.8% of the time against righties in the last 30 days.

The only two righties with potential include Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe. If the Brewers can get guys on base for those two hitters, they’ll have success offensively. But they’re not going to put up a crazy amount of runs against Miami’s pitching staff.

Milwaukee Brewers

Aaron Ashby will take the hill for the Brewers. He hasn’t looked great since returning from the injured list. However, he’s induced 80% of ground balls when balls are hit into play.

Miami has four batters hitting at least 50% of grounders in the last 30 days, and only three batters have a high ISO and wOBA against lefties.


The Over/Under Pick

There’s little potential for both teams. If Ashby struggles, he’ll have a quick leash anyway.

Let’s ride the Under.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (+100) at BetOnline

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Under 7.5 (+100)
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals

Saturday, October 01, 2022 - 01:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park

The Phillies are trying to hold off the Brewers for that final spot in the NL Wild Card. The Phillies and Nationals will play a doubleheader tonight.

I’m talking about the first game of the doubleheader.

Teams Analysis

Washington Nationals

Anibal Sanchez will take the hill for the Nationals. He has a 6.34 xFIP over the last 30 days with 13.5% of strikeouts and 12.2% of walks.

The Phillies are getting a .190 ISO or better from five of their nine hitters in the projected lineup today against Sanchez.

Sanchez has allowed plenty of extra-base hits throughout the season to both sides of the plate, so the Phillies should be in good shape there.

Philadelphia Phillies

Kyle Gibson will get the call for the Phillies. He’s kept walks down, but everything else has been ugly for Gibson. Still, the right-hander has struggled way more against lefties throughout the season.

The Nationals will likely have just two lefties in their lineup to go up against Gibson in today’s game.


The Run Line Pick

I’ll trust the Phillies in Game 1 of the doubleheader. They’ve got plenty of power that can get to Sanchez in a hurry.

MLB Pick: Phillies RL -1.5  (-115) at BetOnline

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Phillies RL -1.5 (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.