MLB Daily Picks: Best Moneyline, Run Line and Total for August 28

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Oneil Cruz #15 of the Pittsburgh Pirates hits a solo home run against the Atlanta Braves on August 22, 2022. Justin Berl/Getty Images/AFP

Well hey there. I’m probably not the Jason you expected today, but I’m very pleased to bring you my top moneyline, run line and total daily MLB picks for Sunday’s slate – and it’s a banger, too, so let’s get right to the MLB odds for today.

Sunday’s trio of MLB picks includes two of the biggest underdogs in the yard, as well as the most profitable Under pitcher in baseball.

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Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets 

Sunday, August 28, 2022 – 01:40 PM EDT at Citi Field 

The biggest underdogs on the MLB odds board often carry the most value, especially when they’re facing a future Hall of Fame pitcher – assuming said pitcher doesn’t go mental and ruin his candidacy with some untoward behavior. 

Teams Analysis 

Colorado Rockies 

The Rockies are at the bottom of the NL West division – again – but they’re not completely awful at any one thing, and they’ve actually got a league-average bullpen. It’s a tough division, what can I say? 

Projected starter German Marquez (3.92 xFIP) isn’t as bad as his 5.22 ERA would suggest. He’s up 1.48 betting units this year on a team record of 12-12. Mediocrity pays when you’re trawling for value.

New York Mets 

Second on the MLB Power Rankings at The Athletic, New York has three fewer Pythagorean Wins than Actual Wins; they’ve been fortunate to go 9-2 in extra innings, given their own so-so bullpen. The Mets sure can hit, though.

You’re probably aware of Max Scherzer (3.44 xFIP). But don’t let his career-best 2.33 ERA fool you; Scherzer’s not a Cy Young candidate this year, and the Mets are “only” 12-6 (plus-2.08 units) with Mad Max on the mound. 

The Moneyline Pick 

These are the kind of baseball picks that look foolish when they don’t work, but that’s where the betting value comes from. It’s time to taste the Rockies. 

MLB Pick: Rockies ML (+287) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Rockies ML (+287)
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies 

Sunday, August 28, 2022 - 01:35 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park 

Remember when the Keystone State had two good baseball teams? It was over 40 years ago, so probably not. But again, we need that big-dog betting value, and this matchup delivers in spades. 

Teams Analysis 

Pittsburgh Pirates 

Okay, the Pirates are definitely worse than Colorado. They’re last in the NL Central, which is much weaker than the NL West, but once again, Pittsburgh’s bullpen is league-average – judging by the WAR charts at FanGraphs. Bullpen = Betting Value. 

As for Sunday’s starter, Roansy Contreras (4.55 xFIP) is an above-average prospect whose season stats took a hit on July 1 when he melted down in a 19-2 loss to Milwaukee. Contreras is down 2.74 betting units on a team record of 4-7; try to ignore that and focus on his plus fastball.

Philadelphia Phillies 

How are these guys still in the Wild Card race? Oh yeah: Starting pitching, which ranks fourth overall on the WAR charts. Their hitting is kinda meh, and while Bryce Harper (.977 OPS) returned to action Friday, he’s playing with a surgically repaired left thumb. 

Noah Syndergaard (4.29 xFIP) isn’t the pitcher he used to be. He’s all right, I guess, but he’s down 3.71 units on a team record of 9-10. What’s that? Is he 4-0 with the Phillies? Three of those wins were by a single run, and they need to win by two to cover the run line.

The Run Line Pick 

The Phillies have a large fan base with eternally high expectations. The Pirates... they’re the Pirates. You know where the value is. 

MLB Pick: Pirates +1.5 (+105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Pirates +1.5 (+105)
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins 

Sunday, August 28, 2022 - 12:05 PM EDT at LoanDepot Park

As we go to press, the Under has cashed in at 52.2 percent in the past 30 days, and the past seven days as well. That’s almost the 52.4 percent we need to make a profit; these two teams can get us there. 

Teams Analysis 

Los Angeles Dodgers 

The Dodgers can mash the ball, no doubt about it, but they also have incredible pitching – and projected starter Julio Urias (3.67 xFIP) has the best Under record in MLB at 16-5-3. Plus, 2B Gavin Lux (.812 OPS) has missed four straight games with a sore neck. 

Miami Marlins 

Decent pitching and horrible hitting make the Marlins a very strong Under pick. And to help tame those L.A. bats, Edward Cabrera (3.83 xFIP in seven starts) is due to take the mound for Miami. He’s got the Under at 4-3 thus far, including each of his last four starts. 

The Over/Under Pick 

That 7-run total will take some serious limboing, but the +100 vig makes the reward worth the risk. Shimmy accordingly, and may the sphere be with you. 

MLB Pick: Under 7 (+100) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)

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Under 7 (+100)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.