With plenty of exciting pitchers on the mound tonight, we picked out our favorite moneyline, total, and runline bets for the night. Which bet are you going to tail tonight?
From my view of things, the offense might be harder to come by today, especially in the Giants vs. Padres game. Having said that, the Mets do have an easier matchup in their game against the Reds, so I expect their bats to get going. As for the Yankees, will they make it two in a row?
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Tuesday, August 09, 2022, 10:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
The New York Yankees responded in a big way yesterday, defeating the Mariners by five runs. The offense was wide awake and scored nine runs in the road win to snap a five-game losing streak.
Tonight’s game is all about redemption. Gerritt Cole will take the hill against Luis Castillo for the second straight game. Cole allowed multiple homers in the first inning of his last start against the Mariners but then was able to settle down and pitch really well.
In the last 30 days, Cole has had a:
- 2.53 xFIP
- 35.9% of strikeouts
- 3.1% of walks.
He’s been really good, minus that one little hiccup.
The Moneyline Pick
After all, the Mariners are only hitting a .281 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days with 14.4% of line drives hit.
On the other hand, Matt Carpenter will not be available anymore for the Yankees, but they’re still hitting a .340 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days if Anthony Rizzo is back.
Castillo has a 4.01 xFIP with 28.9% of strikeouts and pitched very well against the Yankees in the first game with the Mariners. But the Yankees still look better on paper. With the moneyline at -130, I’ll take my chances.
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, August 09, 2022, 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The Padres haven’t been great offensively since they acquired Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury. Why? I don’t have any answers. I just bet on games based on recent stats.
Alex Cobb will take the hill for the Giants, owning a 3.17 xFIP in the last 30 days. Cobb has also struck out over 26% of batters in that time frame and has earned over 60% of ground balls.
That’s a pitcher I want to back, especially against a Padres offense that is struggling.
Meanwhile, the Padres will send out Joe Musgrove, who has a 4.12 xFIP with 23.2% of strikeouts. He’s been able to limit walks well and will take on a Giants lineup that has six players hitting an ISO of .163 or lower against righties. San Francisco really doesn’t have many threats against right-handed pitching as of late.
Cobb and Musgrove have both pitched above average in the last 30 days and are taking on two offenses that have been hot and cold and simply inconsistent. I’ll take my chances with these two pitchers in tonight’s game and ride with the under in this matchup.
Cobb has been a bit unlucky throughout the season while Musgrove has been a bit more unlucky as of late, giving up a BABIP of .371 in the last 30 days.
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets
Tuesday, August 09, 2022, 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
The Reds will pitch Mike Minor, who has just been absolutely terrible analytically in the last 30 days.
Minor has had a 7.34 xFIP in the last 30 days along with 14.1% of walks. The Mets have done a very good job at working counts and putting the ball in play. They’ll have plenty of base runners against Minor.
In the last 30 days, Pete Alonso and Darin Ruf have both destroyed left-handed pitching with ISO’s over .350 each. Minor has struggled way more against righties this season in comparison. Those two bats should produce at a high rate in tonight’s game.
The Run Line Pick
Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco will take the hill. He has an xFIP below 4 and will take on a Reds lineup where every single batter has struck out at least 18.8% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. Carrasco has earned 21.5% of strikeouts in the last 30 days but that number should increase after tonight’s game.
Back the Mets on the run line for our last MLB pick. Carrasco will shut down Cincy and New York's bats will get going against Minor.
MLB Pick: Mets RL -1.5 (-150) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.