MLB 2022 World Series Price and Series Props

profile image of Rainman
Bryce Harper #3 and Nick Castellanos #8 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrate their 10-6 win against the San Diego Padres. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP.

Online betting sites have released their MLB odds for the upcoming World Series between Philadelphia and Houston. The Astros are heavily favored to win the series. BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), for example, has them at -190 to win the World Series.

While Philadelphia has been hot and has, for many, “team of destiny” vibes, Houston has been even hotter. In addition to remaining undefeated in this year’s postseason, the Astros won 19 more games than Philadelphia during the regular season.

Given their regular season and postseason successes, it was always obvious that the Astros would be favored to win the series. But, as I will explain, Philadelphia is well-equipped to challenge Houston.

In addition to the World Series outcome, you should take advantage of the prop betting opportunities offered by the top-rated sportsbooks.

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest: BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool Opens for Registration

Scrutinizing the Odds

The most biased Philly backer on the planet knew that Philadelphia was going to be the underdog to win the World Series.

For all of Philly’s recent successes, the Astros won 19 more regular season games and remain undefeated in postseason play.

They are, predictably, heavily favored across sportsbooks to win the series. Predictable is one thing, but is it justified that Houston is favored so heavily?

Regular Season Success: Who Cares?

Regular season success simply doesn’t matter right now, just ask the Braves, who won the NL East, but lost in four games to Philadelphia. Postseason play favors teams with top-heavy pitching.

Whereas the Phillies’ starting rotation quality drops off after its top three starters and whereas they rely heavily on a few relievers, Houston is vastly deeper.

During the regular season, Philadelphia could not sustain what it is doing now, relying on its few high-quality pitchers, this reliance explains the steep improvement in its bullpen ERA.

The Phillies are vastly more successful in postseason play than during the regular season because of the relative brevity of postseason play, which allows them to get away with lacking Houston’s pitching depth.

Postseason Resumes 

Houston Astros

I don’t think what Houston in the postseason has done up until now is all that impressive.

The Astros beat Mariner and Yankee squads that struggled over large segments of the second half of the season even against lesser teams.

Largely thanks to substantial hitting woes, New York finished 35-34 in the second half of the regular season. As for the Mariners, they lost series to the White Sox, Angels, A’s, and Royals in September alone.

Philadelphia Phillies

Meanwhile, there is no way to discredit Philadelphia’s defeat of the NL East champion Braves.

It’s significant to note that the Phillies’ postseason resume is stronger than Houston’s because it emphasizes the unimportance of regular season records at this point in the season.

It further undercuts the notion that the Astros should be favored so heavily to win the series.

Series Games Handicap 

The Astros’ being favored so heavily has allowed for the possible excellent betting opportunity to exist: Phillies +1.5 at -145 (at Bovada).

Philadelphia can lose the series by a game and still win this bet.

Houston’s Top Starters

Starting pitching favors Philadelphia in this series. For Houston, Justin Verlander is heavily reliant on throwing four-seam fastballs, which the Phillies are slugging .485 against in this postseason.

Framber Valdez, who seems likely to start Game 2, might seem to be just the pitcher that Houston needs in the sense that Philadelphia is one of the best home run-hitting teams, but he excels at keeping balls on the ground.

In terms of BA and slugging rate, though, Philadelphia has hit ground ball pitchers better than fly ball pitchers. Plus, Valdez is a lefty, and the Phillies have one of the highest slugging rates against left-handed pitching.

Philadelphia’s Top Starters 

In these first two games, Philly will start Aaron Nola who had a perfect game intact in the seventh inning in Houston’s ballpark. 

Nola is also coming off a terrible start, and he repeatedly shuts out or limits his opponent to one run in his following start, he has bounced back in this way in his last six starts following one in which he allowed four or more runs.

Ace Zack Wheeler carries a 1.78 postseason ERA into this game while relying heavily on his four-seam fastball, which Houston has struggled to hit this postseason.

Even if Philadelphia were to lose Games 3 and 4 (Ranger Suarez’s second-half and postseason form notwithstanding) it hands the baton back to Nola/Wheeler to win our bet.

MLB Pick: Phillies +1.5 Games (-145) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Phillies +1.5 Games (-145)
Visit Site

Given the above information, I also recommend betting on: Series Leader After 3 Games. This is the second bet that I am recommending.

For this bet to hit, Philadelphia will need to lead the series after three games. So, I recommend betting on the series to start off 2-1 or 3-0 in Philadelphia’s favor.

MLB Pick: Phillies Series Leader After Three Games (+135) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Phillies Series Leader After Three Games (+135)
Visit Site

Player to Record Most Total Bases in the Series 

For this bet to hit, the player we invest in will need to record the most total bases: a single or walk is one base, a double is two bases, and so forth.

So, we want to invest in the player who will do the best job of getting on-base and especially of accruing extra-base hits.

No hitter appears hotter and more formidable right now than Bryce Harper. So far this postseason, Harper is hitting .419 and slugging .907.

He especially appears likely to record the most total bases as Houston’s Yordan Alvarez continues his lackluster play since his tremendous performance against Seattle.

Astros’ Threats

Alvarez has three hits in his last five games. Astro Alex Bregman might seem like another threat to Harper, but Bregman is batting .188 in World Series play, and thus seems primed to cool off in tandem with the slumping Jose Altuve.

Astro Kyle Tucker, moreover, has all of one extra-base hit in this postseason.

Harper with his clutch hitting and his big-time power seems to me to be attractively priced according to the MLB odds.

MLB Pick: Bryce Harper to Record Most Total Bases (+900) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Bryce Harper to Record Most Total Bases (+900)
Visit Site

Given the preceding information, I also recommend betting on Series Total Bases – Alex Bregman vs. Bryce Harper. This is the fourth and final bet that I am recommending.

This bet asks us to choose whether Bregman or Harper will record more total bases. I explained above why Harper is the clear choice here to record more total bases than Bregman.

MLB Pick: Bryce Harper More Series Total Bases Over Alex Bregman (-110) at Bovada

Bovada logo
Bryce Harper More Series Total Bases Over Alex Bregman (-110)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.