Mets vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Preview and Pick

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Daniel Vogelbach #32 of the New York Mets singles in the fifth inning against the San Diego Padres. Adam Hunger/Getty Images/AFP

The New York Mets will be looking to sweep the Marlins on the road with a win against their starting pitcher Pablo Lopez, this afternoon. Can the Mets finish the job in Miami?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us for this matchup!

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Sunday, July 31, 2022 – 01:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park

Series Recap

The New York Mets stayed hot on Saturday, defeating the Marlins for the second straight time, 4-0. The Mets are now 63-37 on the season and currently have the longest active win streak in MLB, with five games in a row.

Meanwhile, the Marlins are just 47-54 on the year. They’ve probably overachieved at the start of the year, thanks to their pitching. But the Marlins won’t be seeing the playoffs this season. We’ll see if they end up selling off some of their assets before the Trade Deadline later this week.

Anyway, here are our picks and predictions for today's game between the Mets and Marlins.

The Pitching Match-Up

Taijuan Walker will get the start for the Mets as they look for a sweep over Miami. He has an 8-2 record with a 2.67 ERA on the season.

In the last 30 days, Walker has:

  • A 4.00 xFIP
  • 24.7% of strikeouts
  • 5.2% of walks.
  • 47.7% of ground balls
  • 18.5% of line drives

On the other hand, Miami will pitch Pablo Lopez, who, in the last 30 days, has a:

  • 4.17 xFIP
  • 27.3% of strikeouts
  • 53% of ground balls
  • 15.6% of line drives

However, Lopez has a BABIP of .197 while allowing 10% of walks. I’m not sure he can sustain that against teams like the Mets.

Who has the more Favorable Lineup?

The Marlins have struggled at the plate against righties in the last 30 days. The Marlins are currently without two of their best hitters in Jazz Chisholm and Garrett Cooper.

Therefore, as a projected lineup, the Marlins are hitting a .095 ISO and wOBA of .282 against righties in the last month.

The Mets, however, have hit a .172 ISO with a wOBA of .322 against righties in the last 30 days. New York will more than likely start new acquisition Tyler Naquin and that should help this team’s line drive rate against righties. As a projected lineup, this team is hitting 28.1% of line drives in the last 30 days against them.

Game Prediction

The Mets are playing tremendous baseball right now. They came out of the All-Star break and lost two to the Padres. But ever since that Sunday Night Baseball game, the Mets have been playing incredibly well.

There will still be some moves made but the Mets have really put together a solid lineup to hit against righties right now.

Lopez is walking 10% of batters and now the Mets are walking 9.1% of the time in the last month against right-handers with Daniel Vogelbach earning 21.6% of walks. On the other hand, Lopez is walking lefties 14.5% of the time and the Mets will have six of them in the lineup.

Marlins Struggling to Score

As I mentioned earlier, the Marlins are without their two best hitters. They’re struggling to score runs and get on base against righties because of it. Chisholm and Cooper were the first two batters in the lineup for the Marlins in most games this season. So it’s been a tough blow for this team without those two.

Anyway, Walker has been elite. He’s limiting walks and just doing everything so well. His strikeout rate has started to rise and he’s in a groove. Last year, he struggled in the second half of the season. But it was the high amount of volume that he threw in 2021 which he had never done since his surgeries.

He’s built for the second half this year and he’ll prove it against the Marlins.

The Pick

The Mets are looking for the sweep over Miami, on the road, with Miami playing without their two best hitters.

Even when the Mets fell down 3-0 to Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins, New York found a way to win. That’s what good teams do. The Mets are a World Series contender and are playing like it right now.

With my MLB Pick of the Day. I’m taking the Mets on the moneyline at -150.

MLB Pick: Mets ML (-150) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Mets ML (-150)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.