The New York Mets will look to continue their successful road trip with a series against the San Francisco Giants. Can the Mets hold on to the top record in the National League? Here are our picks and predictions for the Mets and Giants game on Monday.
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, May 23, 2022 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The New York Mets are still the best team in the NL, with a 28-15 record to start the season. The Mets ended up defeating the Colorado Rockies in a three-game series and will have to continue with their road trip against the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants are currently 22-18 on the season and have had to deal with a ton of injuries. But, ultimately, the Giants are above .500 and that’s all you can ask for at this point.
The Mets also haven’t had it easy when it comes to injuries. With Max Scherzer out of the rotation, the Mets are currently without Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tylor Megill.
That’s baseball for you. Injuries will happen. You’ve got to be prepared. So which team will be more prepared for tonight’s game between the Giants and Mets?
The Pitching Match-Up
With Max Scherzer out of the rotation, for the time being, the Mets will pitch left-hander David Peterson. Peterson has been up and down between the minors and majors but in the majors, he has a 1.89 ERA through four appearances.
In the last 30 days, Peterson still has a 4.68 xFIP with 9.3% of walks but has induced 53.3% of ground balls while allowing just 10% of line drives. On the other hand, Alex Cobb will take the mound for the Giants, with a 3.45 xFIP along with 24.3% strikeouts.
Cobb has been very unlucky and has an ERA of 5.61 despite earning 69.4% of ground balls and giving up 14.3% of line drives in the last 30 days. Cobb has allowed some power to righties but he’s been much better than his ERA suggests.
Who has the more Favorable Lineup?
It's hard to say. The Giants also haven’t been electric against lefties, with a .166 ISO and wOBA of .304 in the last 30 days using the projected lineup. The Giants struck out 24.9% of the time and have hit under 20% of line drives in the last 30 days against lefties.
Meanwhile, the Mets haven’t been all that better against righties, hitting a .143 ISO and wOBA of .328 in that same 30-day time frame. The Mets are hitting 45.8% of ground balls and that’s not a good sign when going up against Cobb.
I would like to think runs come at a premium in this game. Peterson won’t go deep but he’ll give you four or five innings while allowing little to no runs. Peterson might give up a run or two when going up against guys like Austin Slater and Darin Ruf. But other than that, Peterson should have success against a weak Giants lineup against lefties.
Cobb, on the other hand, allowed four runs (3 ER) against the Mets earlier this season in 4.1 innings of work. He struck out four in that game and added no walks while giving up six hits.
Cobb wasn’t perfect in that game but kept the Giants in. Eventually, the Mets defeated the Giants in Cobb’s start in the 10th inning. The righty has been very good at earning ground balls and has a low xFIP with high strikeouts. If the Mets stay patient, they’ll get guys on base, but Cobb should be able to start escaping jams with ground balls and strikeouts.
Therefore, I’ll take the under in the first five innings. Peterson has been really good in his type-up in the majors and Cobb is going to improve sooner rather than later.
Cobb’s ERA is just completely different in comparison to his xFIP. If Cobb is inducing nearly 70% of ground balls, the ball is finally going to roll his way as the season progresses. Cobb also isn’t allowing many line drives and still strikes out nearly 25% of batters.
Plus, neither offense has been very consistent against the opposition. The Giants and the Mets have a couple of consistent batters but mainly have guys that aren’t having much success offensively.
Therefore, for your MLB pick, let’s take the Mets and Giants Under 4 in the first five innings at -105.
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