The New York Mets added a road win over the Atlanta Braves last night to start a three-game series. Can the Mets win the series a day earlier or will the Braves for a rubber match for tomorrow? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, July 12, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
Series Opener Recap
The New York Mets defeated the Atlanta Braves, 4-1, in the first of a three-game series. The Mets extended their lead in the NL East to 2.5 games with that win and will look to increase the lead even more in tonight’s game.
The Mets can earn the series win over the Braves, on the road, with a win tonight. Or the Braves can force a rubber match in tomorrow’s game. Here are our MLB
The Pitching Matchup
The Mets will send out David Peterson, who is 5-1 with a 3.48 ERA on the season. Peterson has been terrific for the Mets, as he’s been the guy that has stepped in for all of the injured pitchers this season.
Peterson has a 2.94 xFIP in the last 30 days with 31.5% of strikeouts. He’s walked 8.1% of batters but has also induced 54% of ground balls in that same time frame.
The lefty will give up his fair share of line drives, but overall, those line drives are mainly coming from righties.
On the other hand, it’ll be Spencer Strider for the Braves. Strider has had an unbelievable rookie season and has a 4-2 record with a 2.60 ERA on the season.
In the last 30 days, he also has an xFIP under 3, holding a 2.54 xFIP with 42.5% of strikeouts in that same time frame. Strider has limited walks but also has earned just 39.6% of ground balls.
Balls in play don’t matter when batters can’t hit the ball though.
The Braves have had plenty of success against lefties. However, the offense is starting to cool off a little bit against lefties.
Atlanta has a .179 ISO and wOBA of .319 against lefties with just Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, and Adam Duvall hitting lefties for high power in the last 30 days.
The Braves have struck out 21.1% of the time against lefties in those 30 days and have hit 42.1% of ground balls while walking just 8.3% of the time.
Meanwhile, the Mets only have a .163 ISO and wOBA of .311 with their projected lineup in the last 30 days against righties. However, the Mets have only struck out 17.9% of the time in the last 30 days.
But the bad part is that the Mets have walked just 5.4% of the time against righties while hitting 44.2% of ground balls.
This series is going to be all about pitching. With Spencer Strider, you know what you’re going to get. He’s a massive strikeout pitcher, who tends to walk righties a lot more than lefties.
Strider, meanwhile, has been giving up line drives more to lefties in the last 30 days, which is something to keep an eye on. The Mets will have seven lefties in the lineup to face Strider. That could help the Mets get some base hits.
The Mets, on the other hand, have been getting some great performances out of Peterson. But there are always those moments where he will struggle to find his command. The Braves aren’t very patient at the plate, only earning 8.3% of walks against lefties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup.
Righties have had more success against Peterson recently, hitting a .358 wOBA and ISO of .167 against him in their last 90 plate appearances. Atlanta will more than likely have seven righties in their lineup against Peterson.
More offense is possible in this game in comparison to yesterday. But with two pitchers holding xFIPs below 3 in the last 30 days, it’s hard to expect much offense.
The matchups are better offensively but the pitchers are still elite between the Mets and the Braves.
Therefore, with my MLB Play of the Day, I’m going back to the under with my pick and taking the Under 8 at +100. Both teams would need to combine for nine runs to beat me.
Final Score Prediction: Mets 4, Braves 3
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.