Mets vs. Astros MLB Predictions for June 21

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Yordan Alvarez #44 of the Houston Astros hits a two run home run in the sixth inning against the Chicago White Sox. Bob Levey/Getty Images/AFP

The New York Mets and Houston Astros will start a two-game series tonight. Currently, the Mets have the best record in the National League. But the Astros aren’t far behind from their record in the American League. Who will set the tone first in this two-game series? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

New York Mets vs. Houston Astros

Tuesday, June 21, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park

The New York Mets will be tested on the road against the Houston Astros tonight. Tonight’s game is one of two games between the Mets and Astros in this series. 

The Astros are 41-25 on the season but are starting to deal with injuries to young players like Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez. Meanwhile, the Mets could be without Jeff McNeil due to a hamstring injury. New York is currently 45-24 and has the best National League record in baseball. 

Can the Mets earn a win in the first game of the two-game series? Here are our picks and predictions for tonight’s game between the Mets and Astros. 

The Pitching Matchup

The Mets haven’t had the most eye-popping rotation this season. But for what it’s worth, the Mets and their rotation has done well enough. 

Trevor Williams will take the mound for the Mets. He has a 1-3 record with a 3.53 ERA. In the last 30 days, he has a 4.54 xFIP but has earned 21.7% of strikeouts while also allowing just 5.3% of walks. 

Williams has struggled against righties, allowing a .197 ISO in his last 81 plate appearances against righties but other than that, he’s been very good as the fifth starter for the Mets. 

Meanwhile, Jose Urquidy will take the hill for the Astros. He hasn’t had much success this season, holding a 4.99 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, Urquidy has had a 5.18 xFIP along with just 17% of strikeouts. Righties and lefties are having success against Urquidy with high wOBA and ISO numbers against him in the last 30 days. 

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Mets haven’t been hitting for crazy power this season against righties. However, the Mets have limited strikeouts and a .314 wOBA against righties in that same time frame. 

Only Pete Alonso has a high elevated ISO and wOBA for the Mets but against Urquidy, the Mets should have success if the ball is put in play. 

On the other hand, we’ll have to see if Yordan Alvarez is able to play tonight. He’s crushed righties with a .396 ISO and wOBA of .468 in the last 30 days. Without him, the Astros lineup looks a bit weaker. But just like the Mets, the Astros limit strikeouts and limit ground balls to find ways to get on base and score runs. 

Game Prediction

Trevor Williams has been exceptional for the Mets in his role this season. He’s been asked to mop-up work, and take on spot starts and he’s been able to keep his ERA at 3.53 throughout all that. 

That’s not easy. But what also won’t be easy is taking on the Astros, who have done very well at the top of their order between Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker. 

The bottom half of the order is completely opposite but that top half of the order does a ton of damage consistently.

On the other hand, the Mets haven’t been elite this year on the offensive end against righties. But going up against Urquidy, there’s absolutely some hope. Urquidy has struggled equally against both sides of the plate in the last 30 days and the Mets always seem to put together an inning or two where they can rally and score runs.  

The Pick

With that said, the over is appealing in this one. Although Williams has an ERA at 3.53, the Astros and their offense should have been able to have success against him. He’s probably overachieved up until this point and it won’t be easy against the Astros on the road. 

Meanwhile, Urquidy has really struggled recently and is giving up over 42% of hard contact while getting rocked by lefties and righties in the last 30 days. 

Give me the over 9 for my MLB pick of the day. It’ll be nice if Yordan Alvarez is in the lineup, but even if he isn’t, the over still makes the most sense between two below-average pitchers facing off in Minute Maid Park. 

Final Score Prediction: Astros: 6, Mets 4

MLB Pick: Over 9 (-105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 9 (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.