With Mike Trout back in action, will the Los Angeles Angels win a massive home series against the New York Mets tonight?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks and betting sites!
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels
Sunday, June 12, 2022, 07:08 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Mets vs. Angels Preview
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Angels will play a rubber match on ESPN to find the three-game series winner. The Mets dominated offensively in the first game of three but the Angels roared back in Game 2 with a massive game of their own on the offensive end.
Will the Angels snap out of a long series funk and get a huge series win over the Mets? Here are my picks and predictions for the Angels and Mets game tonight.
The Pitching Matchup
Pablo Sandoval (Angels)
- Left-handed pitcher with a 2.81 ERA on the season.
- In the last 30 days, has a 5.09 xFIP with 19.6% of strikeouts along with 12.4% of walks.
- He’s been able to limit damage behind 62.5% of ground balls induced.
- Has limited line drives at 15.6%, which is also very good.
Taijuan Walker (Mets)
- Has a 5.15 xFIP in the last 30 days with just 13.7% of strikeouts.
- Walker has earned nearly 50% of ground balls in those 30 days.
- Limited line drives at 18% during the same span.
Who has the more Favorable Lineup?
The Angels’ lineup is so much better with Mike Trout in it. Trout added a pair of homers in yesterday’s game after returning from a small injury. However, the Angels still have just a .158 ISO and wOBA of .303 in the last 30 days against righties, when using tonight's projected lineup.
Los Angeles has also struck out 26.1% of the time in the last 30 days and has only walked 6.4% of the time. Meanwhile, the Mets are getting on base at a higher rate against lefties.
The Mets have an ISO of .144 but a wOBA of .337 with 24.8% of line drives against lefties with the projected lineup. Unlike the Angels, they've struck out only 15.8% of the time against lefties while adding 10.1% of walks. The Mets have the better lineup, although Starling Marte will likely miss another game tonight due to injury.
Taijuan Walker hasn’t been all that great this year, despite having a 3.28 ERA on the season. He’s giving up nearly 40% of hard contact in the last 30 days and is taking on an Angels lineup that has six batters hitting for hard contact in those 30 days against righties.
Because Walker isn’t a massive strikeout thrower, the Angels should be able to hit for power against Walker with:
- Mike Trout
- Shohei Ohtani
- Jared Walsh
- Max Stassi
All four have been hitting for solid power against righties in the last 30 days. Walsh even hit for the cycle in yesterday’s game.
On the other hand, the Mets probably won’t show off their power as much but should be able to work walks and string together hits to score runs against Sandoval. The Mets can battle against Sandoval and will probably knock him out early in this game just due to pitch count alone.
The Mets only have JD Davis and Tomas Nido striking out at a higher rate than 21.1% in the last 30 days against lefties. Plus, Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar have hit lefties very well as of late, with both averaging a wOBA of .420 or higher and an ISO of .360 or higher.
Therefore, I like the over in tonight’s game between the Mets and the Angels. I don’t think Starling Marte will be back in the lineup for the Mets, but the good news is that Mike Trout is back for the Angels. Walker is allowing a lot of hard contact and if he can’t fool Angels hitters, they’re going to send a couple of balls out of the park.
On the other hand, the Mets will work Sandoval each inning and even if they only score a couple of runs, would ultimately get to work on a subpar bullpen. I’ll be taking the total to go over 9 for my MLB pick of the day. You can likely get an 8.5 at a higher juice but I’ll be a bit riskier today.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.