The Mets have won nine of their last 11 games and are currently the best team in the National League. On a three-game winning streak, can the Mets add another win over the San Diego Padres to their resume tonight?
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, June 07, 2022 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Mets vs. Padres Highlights
- The New York Mets defeated the San Diego Padres last night, winning the game 11-5 behind Eduardo Escobar’s cycle.
The Mets have won nine of their last 11 games and are currently still the best team in the National League.
- The Padres are also up there as well and will look to get one back tonight with their ace pitcher on the mound.
How will tonight’s game play out for the Mets and Padres? Here are our picks and predictions for Tuesday’s Mets vs. Padres game.
The Pitching Match-Up
Lately, Taijuan Walker is escaping a lot of damage. In the last 30 days, he’s got an xFIP of 5.03 with just 11.6% of strikeouts.
However, on the year, Walker has a 3-1 record with a 2.88 ERA. This is due to his high ground balls induced and low line drives allowed in the last 30 days. So far, Walker has kept the ball in play and hasn’t allowed many home runs.
On the other hand, Yu Darvish will be taking the mound for the Padres. Darvish has a 4-3 record with a 4.03 ERA. In the last 30 days, Darvish has had a 4.84 xFIP with just 18.9% of strikeouts. We’re not used to seeing these types of numbers out of Darvish.
However, just like Walker, Darvish has limited power and hasn’t allowed a high wOBA on either side in the last 30 days.
The Mets worked Blake Snell to nearly 40 pitches in the first inning and ended up scoring 11 runs in the game last night. The Mets have the better lineup. In the last 30 days, against righties, the Mets have a .223 ISO and wOBA of .362 with the projected lineup.
On the Mets' end, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Nick Plummer have hit righties with authority in the last 30 days with high ISO averages and wOBA averages.
The Padres, on the other hand, only have a .117 ISO and wOBA of .273 against righties in the last 30 days. San Diego only has Luke Voit and Trent Grisham hitting for high ISO power numbers against righties in the last 30 days. Manny Machado has a .364 wOBA against righties, which is good, but he hasn’t displayed power recently.
Mets vs. Padres Game Prediction
The Mets have done so well offensively this season. In the last 30 days, again, the Mets have a .223 ISO and wOBA of .362 with their projected lineup. New York will also have seven lefties to go up against Darvish. They’ve got a lot of depth and are capable of putting together lineups that give them the best advantages.
Furthermore, I’ve already mentioned Walker escaping a lot of damage. But Darvish has as well. Both are allowing a BABIP near .300 and both are one bad game away from allowing a much higher wOBA.
However, the Padres just don’t have the lineup that the Mets have. In the bottom half of the order, the Padres have Eric Hosmer, Ha-Seong Kim, Nomar Mazara, and Austin Nola, who have all done absolutely nothing recently against righties. Those are rally killers and not something you want in the lineup.
Score Prediction: Mets 6 | Padres 3
Mets vs. Padres Betting Analysis
New York Mets
- The Mets are underdogs again tonight. Carlos Carrasco finished last night with 10 strikeouts to pace the Mets to victory.
The Mets have had some really great approaches at the plate and have more fundamentals than the Padres.
- The Mets have the better lineup and the better pitcher analytically and in the box score.
San Diego Padres
- The Padres do have a balanced lineup, which has been keeping many pitchers off-balanced. But it didn’t keep Carrasco off-balanced and likely won’t keep Walker off-balanced.
- I wouldn’t be shocked to see Yu Darvish struggle in this game. With a higher xFIP and a low ground ball rate in the last 30 days, going up against a much more impactful Mets lineup.
Mets vs. Padres Betting Pick
Therefore, I’ll roll with the Mets. I trust their lineup more and believe both pitchers are pretty equal on the mound this year. Let’s take the Mets for our MLB pick of the day, for the second straight day.
MLB Pick: New York Mets (+105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.