The New York Mets still have the best record in the National League after a four-game road series split against the Dodgers. Can the Mets keep the best record in the NL against the Padres?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at BMR’s top-rated books and betting sites!
Monday, June 06, 2022 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Mets vs. Padres Recap
The New York Mets took a 6-0 homestand on the road and faced the Dodgers in a four-game series. After losing two straight to the Dodgers, the media started talking about how the Mets weren’t truly this great of a team. So the Mets decided to defeat the Padres on Saturday and Sunday and earn a series split on the road.
With the best record in the National League, the Mets will now take on the San Diego Padres in a three-game road series. The Padres aren’t far behind the Mets with a 33-21 record.
This should be a fun series. Here is my baseball betting pick and prediction for the first game of the series between the Mets and Padres.
The Pitching Match-Up
The New York Mets will pitch Carlos Carrasco:
- He’s 6-1 with a 3.63 ERA to start the season. In the last 30 days, Carrasco has had a 4.12 xFIP with just 6% of walks.
- Carrasco has been a bit unlucky with a .369 BABIP in the last 30 days and has allowed a wOBA of .413 to his last 54 righties.
- As of late, Carrasco is getting 51.8% of ground balls in the last 30 days.
Blake Snell will get the call for the San Diego Padres:
- The lefty has had a 5.04 xFIP in the last 30 days with 13.3% of walks.
- Snell has allowed a .188 BABIP in the last 30 days but has only earned 29.4% of ground balls.
- He’s striking out 30% of batters in that same time frame.
Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?
The Mets have hit lefties well this season, earning a .177 ISO and wOBA of .359 in the last 30 days. The Mets are also striking out 18.9% of the time in those 30 days against lefties and walking over 10% of the time.
On top of that, the Mets are hitting 28.9% of line drives against lefties and hitting under 39.4% of ground balls. This is a good matchup against Snell, who just hasn’t looked like he’s returned at 100 percent since his injury.
Meanwhile, the Padres have struggled against righties, hitting a .130 ISO and wOBA of .288 with their projected lineup. The Padres have struck out 23.1% of the time in the last 30 days against righties and are walking just 6.7% of the time in that same time frame.
Mets vs. Padres Game Prediction
The Mets have the advantage on paper. Carrasco has limited walks and earned a solid amount of ground balls in the last 30 days. The strikeouts aren’t as high as Carrasco would like but he should be able to earn more, especially against the bottom portion of the Padres lineup tonight.
Meanwhile, the Mets have four players in the lineup that have crushed lefties in the last 30 days. Brandon Nimmo and Luis Guillorme have done it from the left side of the dish but the two power bats from the right side include Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar. Starling Marte is also coming alive with a .200 ISO against lefties in the last 30 days.
Only Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have been hitting a low number of line drive against lefties in the last 30 days. The rest of the lineup is hitting at least 20% of line drives or more in the last 30 days.
With that said, I like the Mets on the moneyline tonight. New York could’ve easily folded after losing two straight to the Dodgers, but instead, the Mets rallied with two wins of their own against the Dodgers with David Peterson and Trevor Williams on the mound.
The Padres are also coming off an exhausting series against the Brewers, despite beating them 3-1 in a four-game series. The series could’ve easily been a split too, with the Padres escaping the final game in extra innings.
Anyway, the Mets stack up better against Snell than the Padres do against Carrasco. Look for the Mets to hit a ton of line drives, limit strikeouts, and earn many walks. The Mets will be my MLB pick of the day.
MLB Pick: New York Mets (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.