Mets vs. Nationals Free MLB Picks and Preview

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Aaron Sanchez #45 of the Washington Nationals. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP

The New York Mets just won’t die. After struggling to score much of anything in the first half of the game, the Mets strung together a three-run sixth inning to take the lead over the Nationals yesterday. Eventually, the Mets won 4-2 and won the first game of the series. 

Washington is currently 10-21 on the year. The Mets beating the Nationals is no surprise. However, Washington had a 2-0 lead in the 6th inning and watched it dwindle fast.

How will Wednesday’s MLB game play out between the two NL East teams? Below, I’ll break down the MLB odds and share a winning betting pick!

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park

Mets vs. Nationals Lineup

Tonight, Tylor Megill will take the mound for the Mets. He has a 4-1 record with a 2.43 ERA to start the season. Megill is pitching in place of Jacob deGrom and has ultimately pitched like deGrom.

Megill has had a 3.61 xFIP in the last 30 days with 26.8% strikeouts and 7.1% walks. He’s taking on a Washington lineup that has Juan Soto and Josh Bell contributing at a high level against righties along with Yadiel Hernandez. Outside of those three batters, the Nationals have struggled against righties.

On the other hand, Aaron Sanchez will take the hill for Washington. Sanchez has an 8.56 ERA to begin the season but hasn’t been all that bad. He has an xFIP of 4.65 with 15% strikeouts and 5% walks. He’s also getting 57.4% ground balls and allowing under 15% of line drives.

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Don’t be fooled by Sanchez’s ERA. He hasn’t been that bad. The right-hander has been a bit worse against righties, however, allowing a .446 wOBA and ISO of .172 to righties. But that’s just due to low strikeouts.

The Mets are striking out 19.6% of the time using the projected lineup against righties. However, New York is also hitting nearly 45% ground balls with the same lineup and if balls are hit into play, it’ll result in easy ground ball outs a lot of the time.

Still, the Mets have more threats in their lineup and have a pitcher that has been much more consistent on all levels.

Mets vs. Nationals Betting Prediction

Tylor Megill has been everything the Mets could’ve hoped for. He’s not getting a ton of ground balls or limiting line drives at the best rate but he’s limiting power numbers and keeping teams off the base paths with his high strikeouts and low walks.

Lefties are going to have more success off Megill and that’s why Soto, Bell, and Hernandez are threats against him. But outside of those three batters, Megill should be able to cruise.

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Sanchez, on the other hand, has struggled against righties more than lefties. Having a guy like J.D. Davis in the lineup would be ideal but I’m guessing the Mets will put lefties in the lineup anyway.

Therefore, I like the 'under' in the first half for my MLB picks, Sanchez has been much better than advertised while Megill has been spectacular to start the year.

MLB Pick: Under 4 F5 (-105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 4 F5 (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.