Mets vs. Braves Free MLB Picks and Preview

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The New York Mets will look to hold on to their NL East lead as they’ll begin a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves on the road. Can the Mets survive or will the Braves creep closer in the NL East standings?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top-rated sportsbooks! Here are our picks and predictions for tonight’s Mets vs Braves game.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

Monday, July 11, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park

How Are the Teams Doing?

We’re not even at the All-Star break yet. There’s plenty of baseball to be played. However, tonight, the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will start a three-game series in Atlanta with the Mets leading the NL East by 1.5 games.

It doesn’t get much more exciting than this. The Braves have been playing much better baseball than the Mets have in the last month or so. But if the Mets can rally against the Braves in this three-game series, they’ll be feeling really good heading into their next series against the Cubs.

Who Is Pitching for the Mets Today?

It’ll be Max Scherzer for the Mets in Game 1 of the series. Scherzer just returned from injury in his last start and didn’t disappoint.

He took on the Cincinnati Reds and went 6 innings, allowing just 2 hits and no runs with 11 strikeouts. He struck out over 50% of batters faced in that game and was absolutely electric.

On the season, Scherzer has racked up 33% of strikeouts. He’s also 5-1 with a 2.26 ERA and has been the ace of the Mets staff with Jacob deGrom still out.

Who Is Pitching for the Braves Today?

Meanwhile, the Braves will also send their ace to the mound. Max Fried, a lefty, will get the start for Atlanta. He has a 9-2 record with a 2.52 ERA on the year.

In the last 30 days, Fried has had a 3.56 xFIP with 24.8% of strikeouts and 4% of walks. Fried has done well limiting home runs and hard contact, but he has allowed 23.6% of line drives in the last 30 days.

Lineups Analysis

New York Mets

  • The Mets have lacked offensively in the last month.
  • New York has a .154 ISO and wOBA of .304 against lefties in the last 30 days.
  • The Mets have struck out 20.8% of the time with their projected order in those 30 days.
  • The Mets have also hit 53.2% of ground balls in that same time frame with their order.
  • Only Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso have hit for an above-average power number against lefties in the last 30 days.

Atlanta Braves

  • The Braves have hit for power in the last 30 days.
  • Only two batters in the order aren’t hitting consistent power.
  • One of those players is Ronald Acuna Jr., who is more than capable of hitting for power against righties.
  • Still, the Braves have struck out 24.1% of the time against righties in the last 30 days.
  • The Braves have hit 45.1% of ground balls with their projected order in that same time frame.
  • Look for the Braves to strike out a lot in this game. That would hurt their chances of hitting for power.

Mets vs. Braves: Game Prediction

It’s the first game of a huge series between the Mets and Braves with two of the best pitchers in the division facing off. I’m not expecting much offense in this game.

Braves' Lineup Against Max Scherzer

Scherzer has allowed some power to lefties on the year, with a .178 ISO in 103 plate appearances against them.

Matt Olson and Michael Harris have opportunities to hit for power against Scherzer, but since Eddie Rosario has returned from the injured list, he’s struggled to hit righties through 15 plate appearances and has a .245 wOBA with 61.5% of ground balls hit.

Mets' Lineup Against Max Fried

Meanwhile, Max Fried has given up a solid amount of line drives when balls are hit into play, but he doesn’t allow hard contact. He’s basically giving up soft line drives that are catchable.

More line drives are coming from lefties against Fried and the Mets figure to have just two lefties in their lineup between Brandon Nimmo and Luis Guillorme.

MLB Betting Pick for Today

Therefore, I’m liking the Under in this game between the Mets and Braves. It’s the first game of the series with both teams coming off close games yesterday.

We’ve got two aces on the mound who have been in these big situations before. Both should be able to shut it down and help us hit the Under.

Again, for my MLB picks of the day, I’m taking the Under 7 for the Mets and Braves game on Monday.

MLB Pick: Under 7 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 7 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.