Mariners vs. Astros MLB Odds, Preview and Pick

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Cristian Javier #53 of the Houston Astros delivers during the first inning against the Texas Rangers. (Photo by Carmen Mandato / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

We found a winning angle on BMR’s live MLB odds board for Monday’s series opener in Houston where Jose Altuve and the Astros welcome the Seattle Mariners to town. 

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

Monday, June 06, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park 

A successful 6-3 road trip for the Houston Astros started in Seattle 11 days ago, and now they’re hoping that a successful homestand begins with a matchup against the Mariners on a very short Monday night baseball betting card. 

It has been nearly five years since the Mariners were favored against the Astros, so it’s no surprise to see Houston priced in the low -150s. The initial mound duel is between Robbie Ray (4-6, 4.93) and Cristian Javier (3-2, 2.41), with an 8½-run total established by most reputable shops and favoring the ‘under.’ 

Season Series and Betting Trends 

Seattle and Houston have certainly been no strangers to each other during the first two months of the season with Monday marking the beginning of their fourth series of 2022, meaning just two more series are on the schedule with both of them coming very early in the second half of the campaign. 

Houston leads the season series 5-4, and the all-time rivalry at 111-69. All but six of the previous 180 clashes have come since the Astros were shifted to the American League in 2013, and Houston has won each of the last three season series with Seattle while closing as the moneyline favorite at top-rated sportsbooks in the last 85 meetings. 

  • All four wins by the Mariners this season came on their home diamond where totals ran 2-4 O/U. 
  • In the early-May set at Minute Maid Park, the Astros outscored the Mariners 14-2 in a sweep with totals finishing 1-2 O/U. 
  • The last time Seattle was chalked in the rivalry was June 25, 2017, when the Mariners closed as very small home favorites against Houston. 

Robbie Ray Analysis

Even though the Mariners and Astros have already seen plenty of each other this season, Monday will be Ray’s first look at a lineup that has dominated southpaws so far in 2022 by winning 14 of the 18 games started against them by lefthanders. 

Ray also missed facing the Astros during his 2021 AL Cy Young season, and will be going up against them for the first time since September 2018 when he was with the Diamondbacks. The Tennessee native is 2-4 with a 5.86 ERA in six road starts this year. 

One of those road assignments came last Wednesday in Baltimore where Ray and the Mariners were -130 chalk on the MLB odds. He left after five with Seattle trailing 4-2, and the Orioles opened up a barrage of long balls on Mariner relievers for an eventual 9-2 final. 

Cristian Javier Analysis 

Javier and the Astros closed as -125 chalk at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) on the final day of May, and while he didn’t factor in the decision, the 25-year-old Dominican set the tone for Houston pitchers with four innings of 1-run baseball in a 3-1 decision. 

The win was Houston’s fourth in Javier’s six assignments on the season and followed another solid effort in which he worked into the sixth of a 2-1 triumph over Cleveland. Manager Dusty Baker and pitching coach Joshua Miller have been very consistent in letting Javier face 20-21 batters per outing. 

Javier faced 20 Mariners in his outing against them on May 3, lasting 5.2 innings of a combined 4-0 shutout in Houston. He is 2-1 in three starts and two relief outings at Minute Maid Park this season, posting a tiny 0.38 ERA in those 23.2 innings. 

Roof Report 

The roof at Minute Maid Park should be closed for Monday’s matchup, and likely will be shut the next few months thanks to typical summer temps in Houston. If it is open, the thermometer should be around 89° at game time with a 15-18 mph SSE breeze (out to right-center). 

The Pick

Though it was a winning road trip for Houston to help balloon its lead in the AL West to 8½ games, the journey started with a couple of losses in Seattle where Mariners pitchers cooled Astros bats in the series. Houston is averaging 4.42 runs per game against the rest of the competition, but only 2.66 RPG when facing Seattle. 

At the same time, the Astros have won all three homestand openers this season, are very tough on lefthanders and slugger Yordan Alvarez is currently hotter than a $2 pistol. My free baseball pick is a run-line play on Houston. 

MLB Pick: Astros -1½ (+122) at Heritage Sports

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Astros -1½ (+122)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.