Mariners vs. Red Sox MLB Free Picks and Preview

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Rich Hill #44 of the Boston Red sox pitches against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images/AFP.

The Boston Red Sox will look to continue their hot stretch as they begin a new home series against the Mariners. With a veteran pitcher on the mound for the Red Sox, what can you expect in Boston tonight?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks! Here are our MLB picks and predictions for Thursday’s game between the Seattle Mariners and the Boston Red Sox.

Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox

Thursday, May 19, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park

MLB Standings

Maybe the Boston Red Sox are finally onto something. The Red Sox defeated the Houston Astros in a three-game series after earning a win last night. Now they’ll stay home to take on the Seattle Mariners, who are also struggling to find their identity to start the season.

The Mariners are just 17-21 on the season while the Red Sox are 15-22. Whoever wins this weekend series is going to be extremely happy.

Who Pitches For the Mariners Today?

George Kirby will take the mound for the Mariners. The young pitcher has a .90 ERA but his analytics explain that he hasn’t been nearly as good.

Kirby has struck out just 20.5% of batters while inducing just 40% of ground balls. He’s also allowing 23.3% of line drives and has been rocked by righties, despite it being a small sample size.

Kirby has been terrific against lefties to begin the season but it’s hard to imagine the righty will continue that kind of success against lefties as the year progresses.

Who Pitches For the Red Sox Today?

On the other hand, Rich Hill will man the mound for the Red Sox. Hill has an ERA below 3 and has been giving the Red Sox quality innings.

He isn’t getting a whole bunch of ground balls and is giving up plenty of line drives but ultimately, those line drives aren’t coming close to leaving the yard.

Red Sox Lineup Analysis

  • The Red Sox only have an ISO of .139 against righties in the last 30 days but still have a respectable .309 wOBA against righties in that same time frame.
  • Righties like J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts could have a big day against Kirby along with Trevor Story, who is another righty that is starting to perform as of late.
  • Rafael Devers is also a massive piece for the Red Sox and as a lefty, he destroys righties with a .282 ISO and wOBA of .393 in the last 30 days.

Mariners Lineup Analysis

  • The Mariners have a .155 ISO and a wOBA of .299 against lefties in the last 30 days.
  • Seattle has struck out 21.1% of the time in those last 30 days and has just a .248 BABIP.
  • The Red Sox surely have the advantage in this one.

Mariners vs. Red Sox: Game Prediction

George Kirby hasn’t allowed many earned runs this year. However, analytics suggest that the runs are coming soon. With the Red Sox starting to get hot at the plate, I’m predicting that Boston has a solid day at the plate in tonight’s game.

Martinez and Bogaerts match up very well against Kirby but Rafael Devers is also someone who can make noise from the left side.

On the other hand, the Mariners have a BABIP of .248 against lefties in the last 30 days and only half of the lineup is hitting hard contact against lefties in the last 30 days.

There are fewer threats in the Mariners’ lineup and more potential strikeouts in that lineup instead.

I’d much rather rely on a veteran pitcher than a young pitcher, despite what the ERA says.

MLB Betting Pick

Therefore, I’ll rock with the Red Sox on the moneyline. Boston is coming off a home series win over Houston and will now look for another home series win against the Mariners.

Seattle has plenty of rally killers at the bottom of their order against lefties and while you can say the same for the Red Sox, at least Boston is putting the ball in play.

The Red Sox have a .315 BABIP against righties in the last 30 days just from striking out less and giving themselves more of a chance to get on base and score runs.

For our MLB picks, I’m taking the Red Sox on the moneyline.

MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Red Sox ML (-130)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.