How to Bet the 2022 Home Run Derby: Odds, Preview and Picks

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Tonight, we’ll get to watch the 2022 MLB Home Run Derby in Dodger Stadium. This is always a fun appetizer to the actual All-Star Game, which is held tomorrow. Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

New York Mets slugger, Pete Alonso will be looking for his third straight victory in this competition between eight of the most exciting sluggers in the MLB. Each player is in a bracket with a seeding number from one to eight, based on how many home runs they’ve hit in the year.

The bracket is head-to-head and doesn’t re-seed based on how many home runs were hit in the first round.


The Bracket

  • 1. Kyle Schwarber vs. 8. Albert Pujols
  • 2. Juan Soto vs. 5. Jose Ramirez

(The winner of 1 vs. 8 plays the winner of 4. vs. 5. in the semifinals)

  • 3. Corey Seager vs. 6. Julio Rodriguez
  • 4. Pete Alonso vs. 7. Ronald Acuna Jr.

(The winner of 2 vs. 7 plays the winner of 3. vs. 6. in the semifinals)

The two semifinal winners will play in the finals.


2022 MLB Home Run Derby Odds

  1. Kyle Schwarber (+330)
  2. Pete Alonso (+200)
  3. Corey Seager (+900)
  4. Juan Soto (+600)
  5. Jose Ramirez (+1600)
  6. Julio Rodriguez (+1000)
  7. Ronald Acuna (+600)
  8. Albert Pujols (+2200)

2022 Home Run Derby: Who Is Favorite?

Again, the favorite will be Pete Alonso, who has odds of +200 coming into the Derby. He’s won this competition two straight seasons and when it comes down to it, picking veterans seems like the way to go in this competition.

But before we acknowledge Alonso winning his third straight, let’s break down the entire tournament and bracket to see which underdogs might have a shot at knocking off Alonso to win the entire thing.


Kyle Schwarber vs. Albert Pujols

Kyle Schwarber was runner-up against current teammate Bryce Harper in 2018. It sounds like the left-handed slugger has learned a few things from his experience in 2018. I mean, let’s be honest, Schwarber has it easy going up against Albert Pujols in the first round.

Pujols has the least amount of homers hit of the eight sluggers and is ultimately retiring after this season. He won’t have the stamina in him. Yes, Pujols is one of the best sluggers in the game. But not right now.

Schwarber should be able to move on into the semis with ease.


Juan Soto vs. Jose Ramirez

If you’ve noticed, I like taking veterans in the Derby. Juan Soto is a veteran as he participated in the Derby last season. He took a loss to Alonso in the first round but will hopefully change his approach this time around. The only thing that could bother him is all the trade talk and contract talk. He might be in a different mental state for this Derby.

Anyway, he’ll take on Jose Ramirez, who is easily one of the underdogs in the Derby sitting at +1600. Ramirez hasn’t participated in a Home Run Derby yet and will have to take on Soto, who has experience.

Ramirez is finally hitting for power again, but the oddsmakers just don’t think he’ll have a chance tonight. It’s hard to trust Soto right now, but I believe he’ll get the win here.


Corey Seager vs. Julio Rodriguez

If you can find the winner of this matchup, you’re going to be in really good shape. Both of these sluggers have odds at nearly +1000 each. That means that one of these players has to make the semifinals at around +1000 odds.

Corey Seager is probably going to be comfortable at Dodger Stadium. He does hit a lot of center field shots, which won’t help in the Derby, but if he finds a way to stay away from center field, I like Seager to come out with a win over the rookie. Rodriguez is 21 years old and will have a ton of pressure under the spotlight. This could mean he’ll struggle a bit.

Therefore, Seager is the true value play. I know he’ll have to face Acuna or Alonso next, which won’t be easy. But knowing you have a +1000 shot in the semifinals is good value.


Pete Alonso vs. Ronald Acuna Jr.

Acuna Jr. didn’t get the best draw as he’ll have to take on the two-time champ. Alonso is always so comfortable in the Derby but will have a tougher time in the first round going up against Acuna Jr., who has some experience.

Still, Acuna Jr. has lacked power this year in comparison to last year. He’s fully healed from an ACL injury, but still struggling to hit for consistent power. That could hurt him in the competition, especially going up against Alonso first.

I’d side with Alonso here.


Who Will Win the 2022 Home Run Derby?

With that said, in my semifinals, I’ll have all the higher seeds winning. That doesn’t usually happen in these competitions, but I can’t worry about that. I have to stick with my gut!

I have Alonso vs. Seager and Schwarber vs. Soto. Then, for my MLB picks, I’ll take Alonso to beat Schwarber in the finals and get a +200 win.

If you want to bet Alonso to beat Schwarber in the finals, you’ll get much greater odds.

MLB Pick: Pete Alonso to Win (+200) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Pete Alonso to Win (+200)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.