Guardians vs. Yankees ALDS Game 5 Best Bets for Tuesday: Winner Takes It All

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Nestor Cortes #65 of the New York Yankees reacts after throwing out Myles Straw #7 of the Cleveland Guardians. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP.

Can the Yankees earn an ALDS Game 5 victory at home against the Guardians today? We’ve got the answers.

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

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Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees

Tuesday, October 18, 2022 – 04:07 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium

The New York Yankees have forced a Game 5 in the ALDS against the Cleveland Guardians with a 4-2 win on Sunday.

We’re headed back to New York for a pivotal, winner-take-all ALDS. The winner will take on the Houston Astros in the ALCS starting Wednesday.

Because of yesterday’s rainout, it’s unclear who will get the start for the Guardians. However, the Yankees have announced that they’ll pitch Nestor Cortes as the winner-take-all game. We’ll use what we know and break the entire game down.


Aaron Civale Likely Will Get Start for Guardians

Aaron Civale will likely get the start for the Guardians tonight. He hasn’t pitched in the postseason and should be fresh, thanks to a long layoff.

That’s either a good thing or a bad thing. He’ll either be rusty or on point. But at least the Guardians have a reliable starter for Game 5 who is rested and able to go deep. Civale hasn’t pitched since October 5. He’s pitched twice against the Yankees this season and has allowed 12 hits and ten runs in 9 innings of work.

However, in the last 30 days, Civale has had an xFIP of 3.10 with 27.7% of strikeouts and 2.4% of walks. The right-hander has allowed 13.8% of line drives and has induced just over 53% of ground balls in that time frame. But Civale has tendencies to give up the long ball and extra-base hits.

How Do Batters Profile Against Civale?

Both sides have hit a slightly inflated ISO against Civale throughout the year. Civale has allowed a .343 ISO to his last 38 lefties faced, which is the only real blemish for the righty in the previous 30 days.

Even if Shane Bieber gets the ball for the Guardians, he’s also a righty who has allowed a high wOBA to lefties over the last 30 days.

With their projected lineup, the Yankees are hitting a .198 ISOS and wOBA of .325 against righties over the last 30 days. Anthony Rizzo, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Aaron Hicks would be the three lefties in the lineup able to hit for power against Civale. Still, New York has struck out 29.5% of the time against righties over the last 30 days with this lineup.

Nestor Cortes Gets Call for Yankees

Because of the rainout, Nestor Cortes will get the start for the Yankees. He’s a lefty with a 3.80 xFIP over the last 30 days.

Cortes has struck out 26.7% of batters over the same time frame but has walked 10%. Still, he’s limited line drives and has kept wOBA and ISO numbers down against both sides of the plate over the last month.

How Do Batters Profile Against Cortes?

He’ll face a Guardians lineup with a .090 ISO and wOBA of .276 over the last 30 days. This same projected lineup has struck out against lefties 25.5% of the time and has walked under 7% of the time.

The Guardians are much worse against lefties than against righties. The Yankees getting Cortes on the mound for this game is massive. Only Owen Miller has a solid ISO against lefties in the last 30 days for the Guardians. The team has also hit close to 45% of grounders against lefties.


The Predictions

This game could turn into a bullpen game. There are so many different scenarios of how this game can play out. Cortes will likely go a maximum of 5 innings but now the Yankees have a fresh bullpen.

Meanwhile, the Guardians can pitch Civale early and then Bieber later. They can pitch Bieber and then finish off with the bullpen between Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, and Emmanuel Clase.

It’s hard to know exactly what will happen. But the Yankees have more potential offensively with their lefties against righties compared to the Guardians against the left-handed.

The Picks

I liked the Guardians in Sunday's game, but now I’m going with the Yankees. They got an extra day of rest and will now be able to pitch Nestor Cortes for a good chunk of the game.

The Guardians don’t match up well against Cortes, and if Civale pitches any innings for the Guardians, the Yankees could probably take advantage and earn a couple of extra-base hits to win the game.

I’m not expecting a ton of runs. No manager is going to leave a pitcher out there to dry. So I’m looking at the Yankees and the Under 7 in this game for my MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-165) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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MLB Pick: Under 7 (-115) at BetOnline

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Under 7 (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.


Suspended Game


Editor's Note: The ALDS Game 5 between the Guardians and the Yankees was postponed after the start of the game was delayed for two hours due to rain. The game will be played on Tuesday, October 18th at 04:07 PM EDT.

The New York Yankees forced a Game 5 in the ALDS against the Cleveland Guardians with a 4-2 win on Sunday. We’re headed back to New York for a pivotal, winner-take-all ALDS. The winner will take on the Houston Astros in the ALCS starting Wednesday.

Because of the rainout on Thursday, the Yankees and Guardians will play their fourth game in a row. Therefore, both teams have no choice but to roll with their fourth-best starter. Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

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Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees

Monday, October 17, 2022 - 07:07 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium

Aaron Civale Is Coming Back

Aaron Civale will get the start for the Guardians tonight. He hasn’t pitched in the postseason and should be really fresh, thanks to a long layoff. That’s either a good thing or a bad thing. He’ll either be rusty or on point. But at least the Guardians have a reliable starter for Game 5 who is rested and able to go deep.

Civale hasn’t pitched since October 5. He’s pitched twice against the Yankees this season and has allowed 12 hits and ten runs in nine innings of work.

However, in the last 30 days, Civale has had an xFIP of 3.10 with 27.7% of strikeouts and 2.4% of walks. The right-hander has allowed 13.8% of line drives and has induced just over 53% of ground balls in that time frame. But Civale has tendencies to give up the long ball and extra-base hits.

Both sides have hit a slightly inflated ISO against Civale throughout the year. He has allowed a .343 ISO to his last 38 lefties faced, which is the only real blemish for the righty in the last 30 days.

Against Righties

The Yankees are hitting a .198 ISOS and wOBA of .325 against righties over the last 30 days with their projected lineup.

Anthony Rizzo, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Aaron Hicks would be the three lefties in the lineup able to hit for power against Civale. Still, New York has struck out 29.5% of the time against righties over the last 30 days with this lineup.


Jameson Taillon Gets Call for Yankees

Jameson Taillon pitched in the 10th inning for the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS. Taillon lost against the Guardians after allowing all three batters he faced to reach base. He can pitch in this game because he only threw against three batters, but Taillon probably has a quicker hook than Civale.

Against him, the Guardians have seven hits in five innings. But Cleveland only earned one run in that start, a solo home run.

Over the last 30 days, Taillon has had a 4.57 xFIP with 22.5% of strikeouts and 4.9% of walks. He’s allowed over 21% of line drives and is getting under 35% of ground balls.

Taillon vs. Lefties

Lefties have a .355 wOBA, while righties have an ISO of .190 against Taillon. There’s room for the Guardians to have success. The lefties in the lineup have a wOBA of .359 for the Guardians against righties, while righties have an ISO of .101.

The Guardians have limited strikeouts and have the potential to put the ball in play at a higher rate to make things happen. The four-left hitters that could produce in this game against Taillon are the following:

  • Steven Kwan
  • José Ramírez
  • Josh Naylor
  • Andrés Giménez

ALDS Game 5 Best Bets

The Yankees and Guardians are ultimately playing in a bullpen game. Taillon and Civale won’t go deeper than three innings. Maybe Civale does if he’s perfect through three, but it’s a bullpen game.

The Guardians currently have the better bullpen situation: Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, and Emmanuel Clase have two days of rest. Cleveland could go Civale for four, Stephan for two, Karinchak for two, and Clase for one.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have had their relievers pitching in big situations over the last couple of days. New York could look at pitching from:

  • Miguel Castro
  • Domingo German
  • Lucas Luetge

Those three are on the roster but haven’t pitched yet. German and Castro are capable of pitching multiple innings if New York is comfortable with that.

Who's Closing for the Yankees?

Last night, Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta pitched. Lou Trivino should be good to go in this game, along with Jonathan Loaisiga, who got rest last night after throwing 30 pitches over the previous two games.

Also, Nestor Cortes is an option to come out of the bullpen. There are so many variables in this game. But one thing is for sure. Neither team will leave a pitcher in the game if they’re not looking right.

With all hands on deck, I’m taking the Guardians and the Under for my MLB picks tonight.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-123) at BetOnline

MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Guardians ML (+130)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.