Guardians vs. Red Sox MLB Best Bets for July 27

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Nathan Eovaldi #17 of the Boston Red Sox. Brian Fluharty/Getty Images/AFP

The classic favorite-Over parlay is the right choice for Wednesday’s MLB picks when the Boston Red Sox host the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox

Wednesday, July 27, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park

What to Expect on Wednesday

Do baseball teams actually run hot and cold? If so, there’s no way you should put the Boston Red Sox in your MLB picks. They’re about as cold as it gets, losing 17 of their previous 23 before taking the opener of their four-game set with the Cleveland Guardians.

Maybe it’s just bad luck, though. Quants generally pooh-pooh the idea that players and teams go on streaks, and maybe they’re right – at least when it comes to baseball. This is easily the most mechanical of the major pro sports; MLB athletes perform the same motions over and over again, so they’re less likely to experience the same highs and lows that they do in football or basketball.

These are still human beings, mind you. So even though I’m recommending the Red Sox for Wednesday’s matchup with Cleveland, you’ll definitely want to make it a small bet. Same goes for the Over, which we rarely bet for more than one unit here at the home office.

Are the Red Sox Giving Up?

This is the other thing you have to take into consideration when it comes to Boston. All that losing has put their playoff hopes in jeopardy; however, the Sox are still just three games back of a Wild Card spot as we go to press, so let’s not get carried away with the tanking dialog just yet.

Still, recent rumblings from Beantown had them leaning toward “seller” status rather than “buyer” as the August 2 trade deadline approaches. Injuries have really taken the starch out of these Sox, with multiple starting pitchers on the IL – including southpaw Chris Sale, out indefinitely with a broken left pinky.

Fortunately for our purposes, Boston have another former All-Star ready to roll this Wednesday. Nathan Eovaldi (3.18 xFIP) is arguably pitching better than ever, but he’s been somewhat unfortunate to give up 2.15 home runs per nine innings this year, dropping 1.55 betting units on a team record of 7-7 (Over 8-5-1).

We’ll need some positive regression to help us out. Boston’s bullpen is stuck in the middle of the WAR charts at FanGraphs; so is their batting order, which will be without 3B Rafael Devers (hamstring) for another week or so. Devers leads the team with a .981 OPS and is coming off his second All-Star appearance in as many years.

Are the Guardians Giving Up?

While Boston’s playoff profile doesn’t look too promising, the Guardians are in pretty much the same boat. They lost 18 of their previous 30 heading into this series, including a three-game sweep versus the visiting Red Sox back in late June. That string of Ls left Cleveland tied with Boston in the AL Wild Card race after they dropped Monday’s opener.

Injuries haven’t been nearly as unkind to the Guardians, though. Their lineup is mostly intact; the bigger difference for Wednesday’s contest, and a key reason we’re pimping the favorite-Over parlay, is that Cleveland will send No. 5 starter Cal Quantrill (4.65 xFIP) to the mound at Fenway.

Not that Quantrill’s a tomato can or anything. The 6-foot-3 Canadian – and son of former MLB starter Paul Quantrill – was drafted eighth overall by the San Diego Padres in 2016, then was packaged to Cleveland two years ago in the Mike Clevinger trade. He’s still got some upside.

Then again, Quantrill fils has seen his strikeouts dip from 7.28 per nine innings last year to 5.71 this year. And the Guardians are down 1.53 units in his 18 starts on a team record of 9-9 (Over 12-5-1). I see a pattern forming here.

Should I Parlay These Lines?

Maybe. These two starters have combined for an Over record of 20-10-2, which makes us more than happy to recommend pounding that 9-run total on the MLB odds board at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review).

The potential profit margin is definitely lower for the other half of this two-legged parlay. The Red Sox are -135 favorites at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) as we go to press; FiveThirtyEight project them to win 58 percent of the time, or -138 using the mouth-watering BMR Odds Converter. Ask for it by name.

We’ll leave it up to you whether you should make it a parlay. But if you want to take advantage of this pitching mismatch, and maybe pick up the Sox at a bargain price, don’t overlook the moneyline part of this equation.

MLB Pick: Red Sox (-135) at BetOnline

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Red Sox (-135)
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MLB Pick: Over 9 (-113) at Heritage Sports

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Over 9 (-113)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.