Giants vs. Padres MLB Free Picks and Preview

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Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the fourth inning against the Atlanta Braves. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP

The San Francisco Giants escaped with a win last night over the Diamondbacks to stay above .500. Will the Padres bury the Giants to start their new series?

Here are our MLB picks for the series opener between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants. Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

Thursday, July 07, 2022 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park

San Francisco Looking to Build Some Momentum

The San Francisco Giants were two innings away from getting swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks in their most recent series. The Giants salvaged the series with a come-from-behind win against the Diamondbacks. That also saved them from going to .500 on the season.

Tonight, the competition doesn’t get easier. The Giants will take on the San Diego Padres, on the road, to start a four-game series. Can the Giants get back on track against San Diego? Here are our betting picks for tonight’s game between the Giants and Padres.

The Pitching Matchup

The Giants are going to send out Logan Webb for the first game of the series. Webb has a 7-3 record with a 3.13 ERA and has been one of the few bright spots for the Giants.

Webb has had a 3.41 xFIP in the last 30 days with 23.4% of strikeouts and 5.5% of walks. He’s been able to induce 56.2% of ground balls in that same time frame and continues to limit power well. 

Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove will take the hill for the Padres. Musgrove has been slightly better, holding an 8-2 record with a 2.25 ERA on the season.

In the last 30 days, Musgrove has had a 3.04 xFIP with 27.7% of strikeouts and 5% of walks. He’s also earning a high amount of ground balls but is giving up more power to right-handed batters in the last 30 days. 

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Giants have always been great at maximizing different matchups. However, things just haven’t worked out this year in comparison to the years prior. The Giants are hitting an ISO of .163 with a wOBA of .305 in the last 30 days against righties. 

Only Joc Pederson has an elevated stat line against righties in the last 30 days for the Giants. The rest of the team has a wOBA below .335 against righties while Pederson has a .360 wOBA. 

On the other hand, the Padres are top-heavy. What I mean by that, is that the Padres have been getting consistent production from the top of their lineup but rarely get much from the bottom of the order. 

The San Diego Padres are getting inflated numbers from Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Luke Voit. However, Eric Hosmer, Nomar Mazara, Austin Nola, Trent Grisham, and C.J. Abrams haven’t done much to help their cause at the bottom of the order. 

The Padres have limited strikeouts more than the Giants and still certainly have the better lineup, but against Logan Webb, things won’t be easy either. 

Game Prediction

Webb has struggled a little bit more against lefties in the last 30 days. He’s allowing a wOBA of .371 to lefties in his last 42 plate appearances against them.

He’ll take on six lefties in the Padres lineup, but again, only Profar and Cronenworth have elevated and consistent numbers against righties. Trent Grisham has a .179 ISO, which gives him some potential for power against Webb, but Webb has done well limiting power so far this season.

Meanwhile, Musgrove has allowed a .245 ISO to righties in his last 55 plate appearances against them. However, the Giants will likely send out six lefties to take on Musgrove and don’t have any right-handed batter that has consistently hit for power against righties to begin with. 

The Pick

With that said, I’m looking at the under in this game. With Webb and Musgrove on the mound, it’s going to be hard for either offense to get going in this one. It’s the first game of a long series and usually, in those first games, both teams start a bit slow and then figure things out later as they get more comfortable. 

Webb and Musgrove have both earned plenty of ground balls along with many strikeouts. Plus, both have been able to minimize walks, which has helped them perform at a high level. I’ll back the Under 7 between the Giants and Padres. 

MLB Pick: Under 7 (-120) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 7 (-120)
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