Giants vs. Padres Free MLB Picks for July 9

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Carlos Rodon #16 of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Joe Sargent/Getty Images/AFP

The San Francisco Giants have fallen to .500 on the season. It’s been a terrible week for the Giants, but they’re still able to split their series against the San Diego Padres with a win tonight and a win tomorrow.  

Can the Giants get back on track in tonight’s game? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

Saturday, July 09, 2022 – 07:15 PM EDT at Petco Park

Can the Giants Get Back on Track?

The San Francisco Giants did it. They’re back to .500, sitting at 41-41 on the season. The Giants had struggled with left-handed pitching all season and struck out over 10 times against Blake Snell last night. Eventually, the Giants ended up losing to the Padres, 6-3. 

San Francisco still has a chance to salvage the series with a split if they’re able to win tonight and tomorrow.

Have the Giants run out of gas or will they get back on track in San Diego? Here are our MLB picks for tonight’s game between the Giants and Padres. 

The Pitching Matchup

The San Francisco Giants will look to get back on track with left-handed ace Carlos Rodon on the mound. Rodon is 7-5 with a 2.87 ERA on the season.

He also has an xFIP of 3.51 in the last 30 days with over 30% of strikeouts in that time frame. The lefty has limited power and has ultimately shined for the Giants this season.

Meanwhile, Yu Darvish will take the hill for the Padres. Darvish has a 7-4 record with a 3.53 ERA on the season. He hasn’t been as electric as Rodon, but he’s done his part. 

In the last 30 days, Darvish has had a 4.19 xFIP with 27.9% of strikeouts and just 2.7% of walks.However, he has allowed solid power to righties in those 30 days, with an ISO of .196. 

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

San Francisco is lost. The Giants have a .145 ISO and wOBA of .297 against righties in the last 30 days. Only Joc Pederson and Brandon Crawford have high wOBA, but those wOBA numbers against righties are sitting at .335 and .340 respectively. This lineup has done nothing special. Instead, they’ve struck out 24.6% as a projected lineup against righties. 

The Giants have earned 10.7% of walks with their projected lineup but it won’t matter if the Giants can’t hit runners home.

Meanwhile, the Padres haven’t been very electric either, when going up against lefties. The Padres have a .136 ISO and wOBA of .312. Ha-Seong Kim, Jorge Alfaro, and Jose Azocar have had above-average numbers. However, the rest of the line has struggled badly. 

Manny Machado, for example, has a .053 ISO and wOBA of .139 against his last 20 lefties. So neither lineup really screams potential to be completely fair. 

Game Prediction

Throughout the series, I’ve been predicting pitcher duels. Another one is in store tonight. 

Rodon should be able to keep walks down against the Padres and has actually performed better against righties than lefties in the last 30 days. He’ll take on a Padres lineup that will likely have eight righties in the lineup.

The Padres have an odd lineup. At the top of the order, it looks great. But then at the bottom of the lineup, they’ve got a whole bunch of no-names. Of course, Jurickson Profar will be out for the Padres with a concussion, so that doesn’t help the Padres’ cause. But overall, it’s just not a deep lineup.

On the flip side, the Giants have nothing going their way lately. They’re in danger of falling below .500 and have just two players hitting a wOBA that’s at least respectable against righties.  

The Giants are only good at working walks and Darvish has limited walks to 2.7% in the last 30 days. So there goes that.

The Pick

With that said, I like the under in this game. The Giants couldn’t hit the ball at all last night against Snell and will have another hard challenge against Darvish.

Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon has pitched better than Darvish in the last month of baseball and should have his way against a pretty weak Padres lineup, especially at the bottom of the order. 

Therefore, with my MLB Play of the Day, I’m looking at the Under 7. It’s a bit juiced but totally worth it with these two aces on the mound. 

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-125) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 7.5 (-125)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.