Giants vs. Padres Free MLB Picks and Odds Breakdown

Giants' Brandon Crawford (#35) scores against the San Diego Padres on September 21, 2021. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

There may be no stopping the San Francisco Giants, who have now reeled off 15 wins in their last 19 games. Despite a strong push from the Dodgers, who have gone a resounding 97-55, the Giants are still two games up in the NL West with 10 games remaining. 

With their proverbial foot on the gas pedal, are the Giants a safe bet here against a wounded Padres side with little to play for? We’ll go over the MLB odds and give out our MLB pick so you can play it at your favorite sports betting sites. 

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres 

Thursday, September 23, 2021 – 04:10 PM EDT at Petco Park 

Dream Run 

It really has been something out of a dream for the Giants, who are a game away from their 100th win. They continue to hit the ball incredibly well and pull out wins in dramatic fashion, as they did in Tuesday’s 6-5 victory over San Diego.

Now comes an opportunity to sweep their division rivals, and to move one game closer to locking up a spot in the postseason and avoiding the one-game playoff which is the wild card game

To put things in perspective, the Giants currently have the league’s second-best offense over the past two weeks of the season with a 134 wRC+. San Francisco ranks atop the league during that time with an 11.3% walk rate and has struck out in just 20.8% of plate appearances, which is an above-average mark, ranking 13th in the league.

Taking a broader view, the Giants have hit the fourth-most home runs since the All-Star break and sit eighth in the big leagues with an 8.4% barrel rate. 

On the hill will be the sensational Logan Webb. He carries a 2.86 ERA into this one which is backed by a 3.31 xERA and has struck out nearly 27% of the hitters he’s faced, ranking in the top 30% of the league in that category, while only walking a measly 6%. 

He hit a speed bump with five earned runs against the Cubs in Chicago last week but has since pulled it back to take his September ERA to 3.67.  


Yes, the Padres are absolutely lifeless at the moment. There is no sign of life anywhere with this team. After dropping the first two games of this series, San Diego has now lost five straight and 10 of 12 games to slip further and further into oblivion.

It seems amazing that with so much talent, and such a lofty payroll, the Padres still won’t be participating in the postseason, but it’s looking like it’s going to be the truth. 

San Diego owns just a 92 wRC+ in September, which grades it out as the 21st-ranked offense in baseball during that time. The walk rate has plummeted to 7.4%, and the Padres simply haven’t been doing much damage at all despite a .252 average.

Their inability to make solid contact has caused them to post just a .140 ISO, failing to do much of anything when making contact. They have hit just 15 home runs this month, which is the third-fewest of any team in baseball. 

On top of all this, now the Padres will be forced to send Yu Darvish to the hill. The righty’s season has gone into the tank with an ERA over six runs in each of the last three months, which dates back to the league’s crackdown on foreign substances and some subsequent lower spin rates. 

Darvish did pull it back with a beautiful outing against the Cardinals last week, but his good starts have been few and far between

The Pick

Without a strong start from Darvish, it may be impossible for the Padres to get this done. They’ve been so poor at the plate, doing nothing in the power department, and should wilt in the face of the relentless Logan Webb. On the other side of the coin, we have an incredibly strong offense which should bring out the worst qualities in Yu Darvish.

I realize this game is in San Diego, but it’s simply not right to put this kind of line on the Giants so bank on it for your MLB picks

MLB PickGiants ML (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Giants ML (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.