The San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals will play a rubber match of a three-game series on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. With two quality pitchers on the mound, how will tonight’s game play out?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us!
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, May 15, 2022- 07:08 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
The San Francisco Giants will take on the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball, featured on ESPN. The Cardinals ended up winning 4-0 yesterday but it was the Giants who won on Friday.
That makes tonight a rubber match between two teams that will likely play in the postseason this year.
The Giants are currently 20-13 on the season while the Cardinals have 18 wins on the year. A series win for the Cardinals would keep things tight in the NL, despite both of these teams not playing in the same division.
Here are our MLB picks and predictions for the ESPN game between the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals.
The Pitching Match-Up
The St. Louis Cardinals will send out Adam Wainwright, who is currently pitching in his 16th season. Wainwright has a 3.18 ERA but is 3-4 on the season. He’s not exactly getting crazy offense from the Cardinals’ lineup when he’s on the mound.
Anyway, Wainwright has a 4.74 xFIP with 15.6% of strikeouts and 11.5% of walks in the last 30 days. Those are all below average and not exactly good numbers. However, he’s still limited ISO power numbers and has kept his wOBA down to both sides of the plate this season.
On the other hand, Carlos Rodon will get the call for the Giants. He’s 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA on the season. The newly acquired lefty has been sensational for the Giants with a 3.29 xFIP along with 35.7% of strikeouts.
Walks can get high for Rodon and he’s also not inducing a heavy amount of grounders, but ultimately, it doesn’t matter if a team can’t hit him.
Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?
The Cardinals have been terrific against lefties this year. However, against Rodon, it’s hard to know exactly what to expect.
- The projected lineup for the Cardinals has a .158 ISO but a wOBA of .340 against lefties in the last 30 days.
- The Cardinals also strike out just 15.4% of the time in that same time frame with 10.6% of walks against lefties.
On the other hand, are the Giants.
- They have a .153 ISO and wOBA of .334 against righties in the last 30 days.
- San Francisco only strikes out 17.4% of the time and walks 9.6% of the time in those 30 days against righties.
LaMonte Wade Jr. and Joc Pederson have been showing off serious power against righties this season.
It’s clear that Adam Wainwright is analytically the worst pitcher of the two. However, the Cardinals have a serious lineup against lefties with eight righties in the lineup that can do damage.
Rodon can lose his command at times and if he allows a couple of runners on base and makes one mistake, Rodon’s day could be ruined. The Cardinals always have a good approach against lefties and have just one player in Harrison Bader that strikes out more than 21.1% of the time.
Plus, the Giants are also getting on base at a solid rate against righties and will take on Wainwright, who has been a little bit luckier this season. He has a 3.18 ERA but his xFIP is 4.74.
Wainwright has induced 64.3% ground balls in the last 30 days but the chances of that lasting are very slim. Plus those ground balls will start to find the outfield grass and become hits. We’ve seen that over and over again with ground ball pitchers.
I wouldn’t be surprised in the Cardinals held their own against the lefty in Rodon. He’s the best lefty they’ll face all year but with eight righties in the lineup and a quality approach, the Cardinals have what it takes to add some runs on the board.
Meanwhile, Wainwright, like I’ve said has been a bit lucky and regression should follow Wainwright. The Giants could be the team to break out against Wainwright.
I’ll take the Over 7 in this matchup. If both teams get three runs, we’re at least in line for a push. Both of these offenses are very capable of at least three runs each.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.