Summer is in full effect, making the Over a solid MLB pick for Wednesday’s San Francisco-Atlanta matchup. But will the Giants cover?
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
Good news, everyone: Summer is here. The solstice began Tuesday morning in
Temperature at Truist Park
Atlanta – or Cumberland, to be specific – falls into the latter category. Temperatures in the mid-90s are expected at
Factor in the 10-mph winds blowing out to centerfield, and yes, we’re recommending the Over for your MLB picks. Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) opened up shop with a total of 8.5 runs and the
But what about the
Are the Giants Good Again?
Sure looks that way. San Francisco still
This isn’t a mirage, either. The Giants started this hot streak by sweeping their rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers, in a three-game set by the Bay. And wouldn’t you know it, we had Over 8.5 when San Fran prevailed 7-2 in the opener. Warm weather + Over = Profit.
Then again, Atlanta
Their success may be fake news, though. During that streak, Atlanta swept the:
- Colorado Rockies
- Oakland Athletics
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Washington Nationals
These are four of the worst teams in the majors.
To help illustrate the difference in quality between these two streaking clubs, we turn to the Simple Rating System numbers at
- San Francisco: plus-0.7 SRS
- Atlanta: plus-0.5 SRS
According to these figures (which were complied before Tuesday’s action), the Giants have performed about 0.2 runs per game better than their opponents. And a run is worth about 50 cents on the moneyline, so we’re already looking at a 10-cent advantage before taking Wednesday’s starters into consideration.
Is Charlie Morton Washed Up?
We won’t take it that far. The 38-year-old
On the flip side, Carlos Rodon (3.20 xFIP) is taking the mound for San Francisco, and he’s been feasting on the senior circuit since coming over from the Chicago White Sox in free agency. Yet the Giants are just 6-7 in his 13 starts for a loss of 2.73 betting units, with the Under at 7-5-1.
The regression monsters won’t let this slide much longer. Despite their league-average bullpen (No. 15 on the FanGraphs WAR charts), the Giants managed to lose all three of Rodon’s no-decisions, after the 29-year-old lefty allowed just four earned runs in a combined 14 innings of work.
Morton, meanwhile, is down 1.33 units on a team record of 7-6, with the Over at a mouth-watering 11-2. And that’s with the top-ranked bullpen in the bigs backing him up.
This all adds up to
Unfortunately, the computer projections we’re looking at for this game are all over the map, so we can’t lean on those like we normally do. But with Rodon pitching as well as he has, and with Atlanta’s recent winning streak inflated by cupcake competition, we’re leaning towards the Giants for
MLB Pick: Giants (+107) at BetOnline
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.