Giants vs. Braves MLB Best Bets for June 22

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Summer is in full effect, making the Over a solid MLB pick for Wednesday’s San Francisco-Atlanta matchup. But will the Giants cover?

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves

Wednesday, June 22, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park

Summer Weather

Good news, everyone: Summer is here. The solstice began Tuesday morning in America, and will end right about the same time as Wednesday’s matchup between San Francisco and Atlanta.

It’s been a long time coming, too – depending on where you live. While some parts of the country have been stuck in early Spring for months now, others are baking like tollhouse cookies.

Temperature at Truist Park

Atlanta – or Cumberland, to be specific – falls into the latter category. Temperatures in the mid-90s are expected at Truist Park for first pitch, with fairly low humidity around 37 percent. At least it’s a dry heat.

Factor in the 10-mph winds blowing out to centerfield, and yes, we’re recommending the Over for your MLB picks. Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) opened up shop with a total of 8.5 runs and the Over priced at –120, before moving down to –115 at press time. It’s a moral imperative.

But what about the moneyline? Glad you asked; the Giants are +107 road dogs on the MLB odds board at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) after opening at +110. Let’s dig deep, peel back the layers, and get to know the real story behind what should be a competitive National League contest.

Are the Giants Good Again?

Sure looks that way. San Francisco still have some work to do if they’re going to grab a Wild Card spot, let alone retain their NL West title, but they’re trending in the right direction after winning seven of their last 10 games heading into Tuesday’s slate.

This isn’t a mirage, either. The Giants started this hot streak by sweeping their rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers, in a three-game set by the Bay. And wouldn’t you know it, we had Over 8.5 when San Fran prevailed 7-2 in the opener. Warm weather + Over = Profit.

Then again, Atlanta have really picked up the pace, too. The defending World Series champs have been on a tear, winning their first 14 games in June to get within striking distance of the New York Mets in the NL East.

Their success may be fake news, though. During that streak, Atlanta swept the:

  • Colorado Rockies
  • Oakland Athletics
  • Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Washington Nationals

These are four of the worst teams in the majors.

To help illustrate the difference in quality between these two streaking clubs, we turn to the Simple Rating System numbers at Baseball Reference, which takes both run differentials and strength of schedule into account:

  • San Francisco: plus-0.7 SRS
  • Atlanta: plus-0.5 SRS

According to these figures (which were complied before Tuesday’s action), the Giants have performed about 0.2 runs per game better than their opponents. And a run is worth about 50 cents on the moneyline, so we’re already looking at a 10-cent advantage before taking Wednesday’s starters into consideration.

Is Charlie Morton Washed Up?

We won’t take it that far. The 38-year-old northpaw has a 5.08 ERA for Atlanta, his worst since 2010, but that’s partly due to a .324 BABIP allowed. Morton’s 4.02 xFIP is much more reasonable, even if it’s still one of the highest of his otherwise impressive career.

On the flip side, Carlos Rodon (3.20 xFIP) is taking the mound for San Francisco, and he’s been feasting on the senior circuit since coming over from the Chicago White Sox in free agency. Yet the Giants are just 6-7 in his 13 starts for a loss of 2.73 betting units, with the Under at 7-5-1.

Looming Regression

The regression monsters won’t let this slide much longer. Despite their league-average bullpen (No. 15 on the FanGraphs WAR charts), the Giants managed to lose all three of Rodon’s no-decisions, after the 29-year-old lefty allowed just four earned runs in a combined 14 innings of work.

Morton, meanwhile, is down 1.33 units on a team record of 7-6, with the Over at a mouth-watering 11-2. And that’s with the top-ranked bullpen in the bigs backing him up.

This all adds up to a considerable advantage for the visitors. FiveThirtyEight has Rodon rated 16 Elo points better than Morton, which works out to... let’s see, carry the one... about 0.25 runs, or another 12.5 cents on the moneyline.

Unfortunately, the computer projections we’re looking at for this game are all over the map, so we can’t lean on those like we normally do. But with Rodon pitching as well as he has, and with Atlanta’s recent winning streak inflated by cupcake competition, we’re leaning towards the Giants for your picks

MLB Pick: Giants (+107) at BetOnline

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Giants (+107)
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MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-115) at Bovada

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Over 8.5 (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.