The Arizona Diamondbacks knocked off the San Francisco Giants in the first game of their series. The Giants are now just two losses away from getting back to .500 on the season. Can Arizona make .500 a reality for the Giants?
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, July 05, 2022 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Giants vs. Diamondbacks: About Last Night
The Arizona Diamondbacks pounced on the San Francisco Giants on July 4, winning 8-3 with Madison Bumgarner on the mound.
The Giants are just two losses away from sitting at .500 while the Diamondbacks are surprising folks, with a 36-44 record on the season.
Who Is Pitching for the Diamondbacks Today?
The Diamondbacks will send out Tyler Gilbert, who hasn’t had the best of seasons. He’s currently 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA on the year and has an xFIP of 10.93 in the last 30 days.
Gilbert has just four games under his belt on the season and last pitched against the Reds on June 7. In that game, he allowed 5 hits and 6 runs in 1.2 innings.
Who Is Pitching for the Giants Today?
The Giants will also send out a lefty in Alex Wood. Wood is 5-7 with a 5.03 ERA on the year.
Still, in the last 30 days, Wood has had a 3.95 xFIP with nearly 54% of grounders and just 4.8% of walks. He’s been much better recently in comparison to his ERA.
- The Diamondbacks are sneaky against lefties.
- Arizona has a .202 ISO and wOBA of .352 against lefties in the last 30 days.
- The top of the order is elite but the bottom of the order is struggling with a high amount of grounders and low amount of power.
- Arizona will have 8 righties in the lineup against Wood
- The projected lineup has only struck out 17.9% of the time against lefties.
San Francisco Giants
- The Giants have really struggled against lefties this season.
- In the last 30 days, the projected lineup has a .128 ISO and wOBA of .288.
- Only Austin Slater has elevated numbers against lefties in the last 30 days.
Giants vs. Diamondbacks: Game Prediction
Giants' Lineup Against Tyler Gilbert
Tonight’s game will be very interesting. The Giants will likely have seven righties in the lineup against Tyler Gilbert, but only Austin Slater has consistent numbers against lefties in the last 30 days for the Giants.
The Giants have hit just 14.5% of line drives against lefties with their projected lineup and have struck out 26.1% of the time against lefties. Those stats are pretty ugly, even against a guy like Gilbert.
Diamondbacks' Lineup Against Alex Wood
On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have five batters with elevated wOBA or elevated ISO numbers against lefties.
Jordan Luplow, Cooper Hummel, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker have had high wOBA and ISO numbers against lefties in the last 30 days. Hummel only has eight plate appearances in the last 30 days but still has good numbers.
Meanwhile, Buddy Kennedy has a .250 ISO against lefties through 17 plate appearances while Jake Hager has had a .558 wOBA against lefties through 14 plate appearances. Arizona simply has the better offense in this game.
MLB Betting Pick for Today
There’s reason to believe the Arizona Diamondbacks can pull off another upset tonight. The offense has been much more consistent against lefties than the Giants have been.
However, Alex Wood has also been the much better pitcher in comparison to Gilbert, especially recently. Wood has struggled against lefties, however, allowing a .338 wOBA and ISO of .192 to righties in his last 83 plate appearances against them.
Meanwhile, Gilbert has a 7.88 ERA with the Diamondbacks and had an xFIP of over 10 against the Reds in his last outing. The Giants, despite not having a great offense against lefties, should also be able to do some damage against Gilbert and the Diamondbacks.
Let's Go for the Total
At the end of the day, both pitchers on the mound have an ERA of above 5. To me, that calls for the Over.
Again, the Giants have not hit well against lefties but they’re taking on Tyler Gilbert, who has been rocked every chance he’s gotten this season.
For my MLB picks of the day, I’m going to grab the Over 9.5 at +105. You can pay up for the 9 if you’d rather play this a bit more safely.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.