Free MLB Picks: Our Best Bets for October 18

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Enrique Hernandez #5 of the Boston Red Sox. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP

The Red Sox are 3-0 at home in the postseason this year and have dominated right-handed pitching. Will that trend continue against righty Jose Urquidy and the Astros, at Fenway Park? Let’s take a look at the MLB odds and choose which way to lean at the top betting sites.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox

Monday, October 18, 2021 – 08:08 PM EDT at Fenway Park

Probable Pitchers:

Astros: Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.62 ERA)

Red Sox: Eduardo Rodriguez (13-8, 4.74 ERA)

Despite having a 4.74 ERA in the regular season for the Red Sox, Eduardo Rodriguez has come up big recently, with a solid performance last week against the Tampa Bay Rays, holding them to just three hits and two runs with six strikeouts and no walks in his last start. There aren’t many pitchers that can allow an ERA of 4.74 and have 13 wins on the season.

Rodriguez was always getting run support this season from the Red Sox bats and that can’t go unnoticed. Rodriguez has struggled against the Astros in the past and has allowed Houston’s roster to go 26-for-86 against him for his career with a .276 average and .872 OPS. Righties like Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman all have had serious success against Rodriguez in short sample sizes.

The lefty has really struggled against righties in the past but has been able to limit power which has helped him overcome those struggles. Rodriguez hasn’t allowed a home run since September 7, meaning in his last six starts and seven appearances, he’s been home-run free. He hasn’t been walk-free, however, allowing 9.7 percent walks in the last 30 days along with a BABIP of .368. So while hits stay in the yard, those balls are still finding grass in the outfield against Rodriguez.

On the other hand, Jose Urquidy will get the call for the Astros. He hasn’t pitched in the postseason and last pitched on the final day of the regular season, on October 3. Urquidy has allowed five home runs in his last three starts and 15 hits in his last 17.1 innings pitched. He figures to have a short leash, as he hasn’t pitched in over two weeks.

On top of that, in the last 30 days, Urquidy has a 5.50 xFIP along with 18.2 percent strikeouts. Walks have stayed down but power has not. He’s allowing 56.9 percent hard contact and giving up a wOBA of .356 to righties along with an ISO of .345 in his last 31 plate appearances against righties. Prediction The Red Sox lineup only has three hits against Urquidy in an extremely short sample size of one game.

Jose Urquidy #65 of the Houston Astros pitches. Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images/AFP

Urquidy, in that one game, earned nine strikeouts and was phenomenal against the Red Sox. Things have since changed. Enrique Hernandez has become Babe Ruth and the Red Sox lineup has absolutely rocked right-handed pitching in the postseason.

The Red Sox have an ISO of .238 and wOBA of .366 in the last 30 days with a 21.3 percent line drive rate. The biggest contributor to these numbers has been Enrique Hernandez, who has hit .500 in his first seven postseason games this year. He’s got five home runs in seven games and has 35 total bases. Tonight, I’ll be asking for just two total bases from Hernandez at plus money as my MLB pick.

MLB Pick: Enrique Hernandez Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Enrique Hernandez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.