Dodgers vs. Rockies MLB Preview and Free Pick

profile image of Jason.Lake

The Los Angeles Dodgers appear to have just enough value for your MLB picks this Friday when they visit the Colorado Rockies.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies

Friday, July 29, 2022 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field

What the Numbers Say

How do you like your chalk? Medium-rare? Well done? Whatever your choice, there’s big slabs of it waiting to be gobbled up this Friday night when the Colorado Rockies host the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Speaking of rare, we don’t usually recommend large favorites like this when you’re making your MLB picks. But the Dodgers are -205 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) as we go to press, and the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight have L.A. winning 68 percent of the time, which works out to –212 using the Ruthian BMR Odds Converter.

That’s a tiny profit margin, mind you. It’s only good enough for a fun-sized bet; there might be more value if you take Under 11.5 runs at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), but we don’t have freely available projections for that. So chalk it is – yummy, delicious chalk.

Who’s Pitching for the Dodgers?

Julio Urias (3.85 xFIP) gets the nod for Los Angeles in Friday’s matchup, which is already giving us the jibblies. Urias has the Under at 12-4-3 this year, but the Dodgers are just 11-8 in his 19 starts for a loss of 1.95 betting units.

Let’s not get too freaked out, though. Urias has seen much better results recently, leading L.A. to the pay window in each of his last seven starts (Under 3-2-1). That includes home and away wins against the Rockies; on June 29, Urias got the W as the Dodgers beat Colorado 8-4 (Over 11.5) as -202 road faves.

Urias is a strong candidate to go the requisite six innings Friday night, and only four of his 19 starts ended in no decisions, with the Dodgers going 2-2. But having one of the best bullpens in the majors behind you always helps. L.A. rank fifth on the WAR charts at FanGraphs for season thus far, although they slip to No. 12 over the past 30 days.

Who’s Pitching for the Rockies?

Say hello to Chad Kuhl (4.85 xFIP). He’s listed as the No. 3 pitcher in Colorado’s rotation, or at least what’s left of it. And Kuhl has done a decent job, all things considered; the Rockies are 9-9 in his 18 starts (Under 9-7-2) for 2.72 units in earnings.

That includes one highly atypical start against L.A. on June 27. Kuhl usually doesn’t make it past five innings, but in this game at Coors, he went the distance as the Rockies won 4-0 as +167 underdogs.

I know, right? The Dodgers, who lead the National League in hitting according to FanGraphs WAR, managed a mere three hits against Kuhl with zero walks – he only needed 102 pitches to earn the complete-game shutout. At Coors Field. Crazy talk.

The Rockies don’t necessarily need Kuhl to go another nine innings this Friday. They’ve got the No. 10-ranked bullpen in the majors, although again, they slip to No. 19 when you focus on the last 30 days. And again, Kuhl usually doesn’t make it to the sixth.

Is the Over a Good Bet at Coors Field?

Not this year. Heading into this four-game series, Coors Field has the total split right down the middle at 25-25-3; meanwhile, the Dodgers have the Under at 26-17-4 away from Chavez Ravine.

We can’t completely overlook the injuries L.A. have had to deal with, either. LF Chris Taylor (.728 OPS) is out for another couple of weeks with a broken left foot, and DH Edwin Rios (.798 OPS) has been out since June with a torn hamstring.

The thing is, the Dodgers keep finding new bats to replace the old ones. Trayce Thompson (.917 OPS in 28 games) was plucked off the Detroit Tigers scrap heap in late June; the younger brother of Golden State Warriors All-Star Klay Thompson is showing the form he had in his first stint in Los Angeles, before back issues derailed his career.

There’s every chance the Dodgers add another bat before the August 2 trade deadline – Juan Soto, anyone? However, that looming deadline does mean that we need to watch ourselves before dumping any serious money on the MLB odds board, just in case your chosen team finds itself shorthanded on any given night while players are being shuffled in and out of town.

With that caveat in mind, and knowing that L.A. have the biggest payroll in the majors for a reason, let’s stick with the game plan and put a small sum on the Dodgers. It’s just the right thing to do.

MLB Pick: Dodgers (-205) at Heritage Sports

Heritage Sports logo
Dodgers (-205)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.