Dodgers vs. Giants NLDS Game 5 Picks and Odds Breakdown

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Julio Urias #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP

Editor’s note: The Dodgers will use Corey Knebel, not Julio Urias, as their Game 5 starter. LA called an audible, announcing that Knebel will serve as an opener. They’re daring the Giants to tailor their lineup, or at least the top of it, to face the right-hander. Urias, a left-hander, would then enter the game and likely log a starter’s workload.

After a heated battle between the two very best teams in baseball, the NLDS will come to its thrilling conclusion on Thursday night in northern California when the Giants host the Dodgers. It’ll all be on the line in an elimination game, meaning both teams — which possess elite offenses and bullpens — will exhaust every option possible to get the victory. To start, they will go with two of their very best pitchers. 

With the stage set, let’s get into who wins this game. We’ll go over the MLB odds and give out our best bet to place at the top-rated sportsbooks. 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants 

Thursday, October 14, 2021 – 09:07 PM EDT at Oracle Park 

A Modest Output

The Los Angeles Dodgers — who were the class of the league a year ago in all facets of the game — have been held to a modest .676 OPS thus far in the postseason with just five home runs and 19 runs in total. Those numbers would seem very low if not for the Giants’ struggles at the plate, which pegs them as the worst offense remaining in the postseason. 

That is partly due to the fantastic pitching the Giants have to offer, but there’s just a shred of doubt that looms over Los Angeles with the loss of Max Muncy on the last day of the regular season. The left-handed slugger was one of the very best hitters in baseball this season and for much of the year carried this offense with his ability to get on base. 

Pitching this one is Julio Urias, who for my money was the best starter in the second half. He finished with a 2.04 ERA in 14 starts striking out 76 hitters in 79.1 innings. His strikeout numbers really took off in 2021, his hard-hit numbers remained elite and his walk rate plummeted to 5.1%. Simply put, it’s difficult to get anything going off of this guy. 

An Ace of Their Own

Okay, so Urias isn’t the ace of the Dodgers staff, with two guys in Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler who should finish ahead of him in Cy Young Award voting, but he’d be an ace on probably 25 other teams. The Giants get to throw a pretty great starter of their own in Logan Webb, who just shut out the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS

Webb had a 3.02 ERA which was backed by a 3.22 xERA this season, and his strikeout rate was right around the same as Urias’ at 26.5%. Everything in the righty’s profile would indicate that he’s an elite starter, and given his sinker’s success against L.A. in Game 1, he should get San Francisco off to a good start. 

I mentioned earlier that the Giants have struggled at the plate, and that’s very true. They’re hitting .184 through four games with a .524 OPS, hitting five home runs and scoring a total of just nine runs. 

Both of these teams have elite bullpens, ranking one and two in the second half of the season, and both staffs have exceled in this specific series. With two pitchers I feel really good about. For my MLB picks, I’m going to be taking the under in Game 5. 

MLB PickUnder 7 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Under 7 (-103)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.