The Over is so hot right now. But is it the right MLB pick for Friday’s tilt between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants?
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, June 10, 2022 – 10:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Rivalry Between Dodgers and Giants Recap
Rivalries don’t get much better than the one between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants.
They’ve been going at it for well over 100 years now, since the dawn of professional baseball in the United States; both teams were based in New York until 1958 when the Dodgers moved from Brooklyn to Los Angeles, and the Giants followed them west to San Francisco.
Reviving an Ancient Battle
This ancient battle will resume Friday night at Oracle Park, and while we’re still waiting for the official MLB odds here at the ranch, the Dodgers have opened as –162 road faves overseas.
That might be a bit too optimistic for the visitors. The Giants don’t seem to have much betting value themselves, though.
And that 8-run total they’ve posted overseas looks pretty tight. We’re going to have to do some deep digging and layer-peeling to figure this one out.
Let’s start by updating the State of the Rivalry as these teams prepare for their first meeting in San Fran this season.
Reasons Why L.A. Dodgers Are So Good
The Dodgers (37-20, minus-0.19 betting units) have been excellent this year, to no one’s surprise; they were excellent even before Andrew Friedman took over as president of baseball operations in 2014.
Friedman’s stewardship, fueled by the largest payroll in the majors ($260.5 million this year), has L.A. back on top of the National League West heading into this series.
Two can play at that game. In 2018, San Francisco (30-26, minus-1.88 units) hired away Friedman’s general manager, Farhan Zaidi, to be their new PBO.
Three years later, Sporting News named Zaidi their Executive of the Year after the Giants ended L.A.’s eight-season streak as division champions. Zaidi could use a little more funding, though.
The Giants have the No. 13-ranked payroll in baseball at $153.9 million; staff ace Kevin Gausman bolted in free agency to the Toronto Blue Jays during the offseason, former NL MVP Kris Bryant signed with the Colorado Rockies, and former NL MVP Buster Posey retired after 13 years behind the plate.
Although Carlos Rodon (formerly with the Chicago White Sox) has brought solidity to their pitching rotation, the Giants have fallen from third to No. 17 in hitting value according to the WAR charts at FanGraphs, while the big-spending Dodgers have improved from fourth to second. No wonder things have gone south in San Francisco.
Jakob Junis Delivers Good Results
Unfortunately for the Giants, they aren’t at the Rodon end of their rotation this Friday.
But they’ve gotten good results from Junis (3.61 xFIP) in the No. 4 spot; the sixth-year north paw signed a cheap one-year deal with San Francisco in March and has pitched well enough to leave the Giants bettors 1.87 units in the black on a team record of 4-2.
Maybe it’s smoke and mirrors, though. Junis has allowed a tiny .224 BABIP and seen a hefty 85.3 percent of his runners stranded, both well beyond his career averages with the Kansas City Royals – where he struggled to stay in the rotation before the Royals cut him loose.
Junis vs. Buehler Analysis
Compare and contrast to Walker Buehler (3.73 xFIP). The ace right-hander is pitching a shade below last year’s All-Star level, although that’s partly due to a career-high .311 BABIP allowed; the Dodgers are 7-4 in his 11 chalky starts for a loss of 0.95 units.
If it weren’t for those BABIP numbers and the regression monsters, we might recommend Junis and the Giants for your betting picks. That total, though...
Is the Over Still Hot?
The Over went 46-37 (55.4 percent) in the seven days before press time, and that profitable run doesn’t even include the Minnesota Twins beating the New York Yankees 8-1 Wednesday night.
We had over 8.5 runs in our picks, then the total closed at nine. Timing is everything. Speaking of hot, that’s what’s happening in L.A. right now.
MLB Pick for Today
There’s a heat advisory in effect as I write this; Friday’s forecast calls for temperatures around 70 degrees for this matchup, cooling off a touch from the mid-80s earlier in the day. Expect light breezes blowing to centerfield as well.
With that in mind, and with Buehler driving the Over to a 6-3-1 record thus far, let’s see if we can squeeze some betting value out of that total once it opens – and may the sphere be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.