Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, July 14, 2022 – 07:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Wednesday’s Recap and What to Expect on Thursday
The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in a slugfest last night. The Dodgers are now back in the win column and have a record of 57-30. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have 48 wins on the season, sitting just two games back in the NL Central.
Every game is important, but if the Cardinals want to keep things close in the NL Central, they’re going to want to close out the first half of the season strong. Can the Cardinals bounce back against the Dodgers? Here are our MLB picks for the Dodgers and Cardinals game tonight.
The Pitching Matchup
The Los Angeles Dodgers will pitch Tyler Anderson for tonight’s game. Anderson has a 9-1 record with a 3.15 ERA on the year.
The left-hander’s numbers look extremely good, but analytically, he hasn’t been the best. In the last 30 days, Anderson has had a 4.92 xFIP with just 16.9% of strikeouts recorded.
He’s not getting a high amount of grounders and has allowed a .173 ISO to righties in his last 112 plate appearances against them.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals will pitch Dakota Hudson, who hasn’t had much success recently. He’s 6-5 with a 4.00 ERA on the season. However, in the least 30 days, Hudson has a 5.50 xFIP with the same amount of strikeouts as walks. He also has a BABIP of .338 in the last 30 days while allowing 31.6% of line drives and 48.1% of hard contact in that same time frame.
The Dodgers are currently hitting a .251 ISO and wOBA of .363 against righties in the last 30 days. The lineup is filled with power, with just Max Muncy hitting a below-average ISO number against righties in the last 30 days using the projected lineup.
Hudson has struggled more against righties as of late, but the Dodgers will have just four righties in their lineup. However, those righties include Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, and Will Smith. The Dodgers should be fine offensively there.
On the other hand, the Cardinals have had solid success against lefties in the last 30 days. They’re hitting a .276 ISO with a wOBA of .354 in the last 30 days against lefties. However, the lineup has also struck out 25.5% of the time against lefties.
Again, Anderson isn’t a high strikeout pitcher though. If the Cardinals minimize strikeouts and put the ball in play, good things can happen for this lineup. Ultimately, the Cardinals’ projected lineup is hitting 27.9% of line drives when the ball is batted into play against lefties.
Don’t look at Anderson’s record and ERA. He hasn’t been nearly as good as those numbers look.
He’s got an xFIP nearing 5 and has a low strikeout rate along with a low ground ball rate in the last 30 days. Anderson has also allowed a .173 ISO to righties and will have to take on a full lineup of right-handed batters. The Cardinals can absolutely do damage in this game.
On the other hand, the Dodgers look even better offensively. They’re more well-balanced, lack high strikeouts, and are able to work walks at a higher rate. Against Hudson, the Dodgers should be able to work walks and limit strikeouts at the bottom portion of their order.
We all know that the Dodgers are capable of hitting hard shots against any pitcher. But knowing Hudson has given up a ton of line drives with hard contact, makes picking the Dodgers even easier.
I’ll do just that. I’m taking the Dodgers. But not on the moneyline or the runline. The Cardinals can certainly do damage too. However, Anderson is more capable of escaping damage in comparison to Hudson.
So instead, I’ll be looking at the Dodgers Over 2.5 in the first five innings on the team total. The Cardinals have a great lineup but they’re also taking on a pitcher that has done well escaping damage. I believe the Cardinals will score theirs and like the full game over in this game.
But I’m more confident with the Dodgers doing their thing. With my MLB Play of the Day, I’ll be grabbing the Dodgers in the first five on the team total at Over 2.5.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.