After Atlanta tied the weekend series at one, can the Dodgers regroup and win the rubber match of the three-game series against the Braves on the road?
Here is our pick and our prediction for tonight’s game, which will be an ESPN telecast. Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Sunday, June 26, 2022, 07:08 PM EDT at Truist Park
The Atlanta Braves have forced a rubber match for today’s matchup with a 5-3 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday. Tonight, the Dodgers will look to escape Atlanta with a series win.
It’s been an emotional weekend for the Braves, as they’ve welcomed back Freddie Freeman in his return to Atlanta for the first time since signing with the Dodgers. Will the Braves prove to Freeman that he made a mistake with a win tonight?
The Pitching Match-Up
The Los Angeles Dodgers will pitch Tony Gonsolin for tonight’s game. Gonsolin has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the game this season, with a 9-0 record along with a 1.58 ERA.
In the last 30 days, Gonsolin has had:
- A 3.96 xFIP
- 25.2% of strikeouts
- 4.7% of walks
- Induced 37% of ground balls
- Allowed nearly 25% of line drives
He currently has a .143 BABIP, and at this point, that number can really only go up from here.
Meanwhile, Spencer Strider will get the start for the Braves. He’s been very good as well this season, with a 3-2 record along with a 3.40 ERA. Strider has had a 3.53 xFIP in the last 30 days with 35% of strikeouts. However, he’s also walked 11% of batters in the last 30 days.
Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?
Against righties, the Dodgers’ projected lineup has a combined ISO of .181 with a combined .342 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days. The projected lineup has hit just 33.3% of ground balls while also hitting 23% of line drives in that span.
Los Angeles only has two players hitting below 21.6% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days, which proves just how great this offense has been against righties recently.
Meanwhile, the Braves have also been tremendous. Their projected lineup has hit a .225 ISO and wOBA of .344 in the last 30 days against righties. However, despite having more power, the Braves have also struck out 25% of the time against righties during the same period.
Gonsolin has been elite this year, however, there’s reason to think that he’ll crack soon. He won’t get absolutely lit up, but when balls are in play, the outcomes are a bit lucky at this point. The right-hander has allowed 37% of hard contact along with nearly 25% of line drives in the last 30 days.
He has also induced just 37% of ground balls in the last 30 days. Plus, righties have an ISO of .227 against Gonsolin through his last 50 plate appearances against them. The Braves have a lot of power with their right-handed bats.
Pitching Prediction for the Braves
Meanwhile, Spencer Strider has higher strikeouts for the Braves but has also allowed over 35% of hard contact in the last 30 days. Strider will get himself in trouble with high walks too. Righties have a wOBA of .338 against him through his last 38 plate appearances against them and the Dodgers will have more righties than lefties in their lineup.
At this point, it seems like the Braves should have more success offensively when looking at the analytics. I know it’s hard to bet against a pitcher who is 9-0 with a 1.58 ERA, but Gonsolin hasn’t been that dominant if you dig deeper.
The Betting Pick
The Braves have a ton of right-handed power between:
- Ronald Acuna
- Dansby Swanson
- Austin Riley
- Marcell Ozuna
- Orlando Arcia
All of those batters have been above-average with power against righties in the last 30 days. Gonsolin gets out of trouble with over 25% of strikeouts and by limiting walks, but when balls are put in play, he’s just been flat-out lucky at this point.
Back the Atlanta Braves at home and trust the right-handed bats against Gonsolin.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.