With the MLB odds this tight, the run line looks like a smart choice for Friday’s Los Angeles Dodgers-Philadelphia Phillies game.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, May 20, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT Citizens Bank Park
Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds Breakdown
Here they go again. The sportsbooks have handed us another puzzle to solve: Friday’s game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies. As usual, the MLB odds are hewing very close to the computer projections, with the Dodgers opening as –141 road faves and the total checking in at nine runs at some of BMR's top-rated sportsbooks and betting sites.
As any radical centrist would tell you, there’s always a third option. The Phillies are +1.5 (–130) on the run line at Bovada as we go to press; Philly fans may be disappointed in their team, but this is one situation where the Fightins could have some sneaky value for your MLB picks.
Phillies Performance Recap
Actually, maybe they’re not that bad. The Phillies (18-20, minus-2.63 betting units) are already seven games behind the New York Mets in the National League East, but that includes a 2-7 record in games decided by one run. Spotting them 1.5 runs will take care of that.
Check out Philly’s plus-16 run differential as well. That translates to an expected Pythagorean record of 21-17, which makes sense if you treat those 1-run games as virtual coin flips. And if you needed any more convincing, Phillies pitchers have allowed a combined .296 BABIP, the sixth-highest in the majors.
Dodgers Games Analysis
Maybe a little. The Dodgers (25-12, plus-1.00 units) have a 27-10 Pythagorean record on a run differential of plus-83, easily the best differential in baseball. But their pitchers have also given up a .259 BABIP, which is higher than just two teams: Tampa and the L.A. Angels.
This is standard practice for the Dodgers, though. They’ve been at or near the bottom of the BABIP charts every year since 2016 inclusive. That was Year Three under the president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, and Year One for manager Dave Roberts. The Dodgers have been World Series contenders ever since.
Who Are Dodgers vs. Phillies Starters for Friday?
Now we’re talking. Jose Urias (4.93 FIP) is due up for the Dodgers, and he’s having a rough go of it this year, coughing up 2.15 betting units on a team record of 3-4. Urias’s .248 BABIP allowed is well below his career average of .281, and wouldn’t you know it, his MLB debut was with the Dodgers in 2016.
On the other side of the ledger, you have Ranger Suarez (4.50 FIP), who somehow finds himself second overall on the MLB money charts at plus-4.91 units, leading the Phillies to six victories in his seven starts.
Suarez has allowed a .286 BABIP thus far, only a shade below his .293 career average, although that was amassed over a total of 22 starts – all with the Phillies.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Betting Pick
It would help our cause if the weather were a bit different. Temperatures around 80 degrees are expected at game time, and while the humidity will be a bit high, winds of 10-15 mph heading towards left field are in the forecast.
Higher-scoring games are less likely to be decided by one run, so let’s make it a suitably small run-line wager on Philly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-130) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.