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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Free MLB Picks for September 15

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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Free MLB Picks for September 15
Julio Urias #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

While the Arizona Diamondbacks are playing out the string on 2021, the Los Angeles Dodgers have clinched a postseason berth in advance of their series finale on Wednesday’s baseball betting card.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Wednesday, September 15, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

Los Angeles became the second team to sew up a spot in the playoffs with Tuesday’s 8-4 win over Arizona. The Dodgers began the series with a 5-1 victory on Monday that saw the return of Clayton Kershaw after missing more than two months. As hot as the Dodgers are with a 5-game win streak, the Diamondbacks are heading in the opposite direction with the worst record in the National League and trailing the San Francisco Giants by 48-games in the NL West.

It’s almost understandable why Arizona manager Torey Lovullo wouldn’t be all that interested in deciding who is going to pitch next, and he took too long for online betting sites to send Wednesday’s lines out early. Lovullo will give the ball to Merrill Kelly (7-9, 4.30) while LA skipper Dave Roberts sends Julio Urias (17-3, 2.98) to the mound, and we can expect monster chalk on the Dodgers once the numbers do come out.

Snakes Closing in on 100 Losses

With this being the final year of his contract, it’s safe to say that Lovullo will not be back in Phoenix next season. The Diamondbacks are sitting on 98 losses and headed towards a second consecutive cellar finish in the NL West, a rapid decline for a team that won 93 games in 2017.

Out since August 15 due to virus protocols, Kelly certainly isn’t being eased back into the rotation with this matchup against a loaded Dodgers lineup. It will be his fourth time to face Los Angeles this season, and the Diamondbacks lost each of the previous three despite Kelly pitching to a 3.38 ERA in those contests. Two of the stars took place at Dodger Stadium where Kelly posted a 2.92 ERA in 12.1 innings while striking out 15.

Kelly’s strong numbers at Dodger Stadium are in contrast to the rest of his action on the road in 2021. His ERA is up around 6.00 at other venues away from home, and the Diamondbacks are 4-8 in his dozen assignments outside Phoenix.

DC Connection Driving Dodgers

Should Los Angeles successfully defend its World Series title, the deal the Dodgers made with the Washington Nationals might ultimately be the reason. Los Angeles has won all eight of Max Scherzer’s starts while the veteran pitched to a 0.88 ERA, and Trea Turner’s bat at or near the top of the lineup has a huge factor in the offense the last six weeks.

With 16 more games on the Los Angeles schedule after this one, Urias figures to get at least two more starts, and possibly three as he chases the 20-win plateau. The Dodgers have been putting up wins all year behind their lefty, going 22-6 when Urias is on the mound and anyone following the MLB betting odds in those 28 starts ahead nearly 13 units. He worked seven shutout innings last Friday against the Padres, Urias striking out 7 in a 3-0 Los Angeles win as -155 chalk.

Urias has won both of his assignments against the Diamondbacks in 2021, the 25-year-old combining to pitch 11.2 innings and allowing one run with 15 whiffs. While Urias has been a road warrior this season, he’s also been a tough matchup for any team coming into Dodger Stadium where he sports a 3.41 ERA and LA stands 9-3 in his dozen home starts.

Umpire Notes, Tinseltown Forecast, and a Free Pick

Erich Bacchus lines up to follow crew chief Mark Wegner at the dish for Wednesday’s series finale. One of this year’s rovers, Bacchus is filling in for Ramon De Jesus and has 14 plate assignments this season after working just seven in his 2020 freshman campaign at the major league level. Bacchus drags a level 7-7 O/U record into the matchup.

Another clear evening is in store at Dodger Stadium, though it will be a tad cooler than the last two nights with temps dipping into the low-60s by the time this one comes to a close. A normal 5-7 mph southwest breeze (out to right) is also in the mix. The chalk on the Dodgers is going to be a little too thick for my tastes, but I’m willing to consider thinning that out with a run-line play for my free MLB pick.

MLB Pick: Dodgers (-345) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.