Daily MLB Picks for September 11: Best Moneyline, Run Line and Total

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Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels hits a home run against the Detroit Tigers on September 07, 2022. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP

Good to see you on this pleasant Sunday afternoon. We did so well here at the ranch with our first trio of daily MLB picks (moneyline, run line and total), they’ve brought us back for more.

Let’s see what the baseball gods have for us this time around.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Sunday, September 11, 2022 – 01:35 PM EDT at PNC Park

Big dogs, no whammies. The Pirates paid out for us last time, although it was our run-line pick. This time, they’re up against the leaders of their rather pathetic division.

Teams Analysis

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are the only profitable team in the National League Central, but they’ve feasted on some very soft competition as of late. And while they’re No. 2 overall on the hitting WAR charts at FanGraphs, their pitching is m’eh. Projected starter Jose Quintana (3.81 xFIP) came over from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline, so the Pirates will have valuable intel on the veteran lefty.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Yes, they’re in the division basement, but that’s where the betting value comes from – that, and Pittsburgh’s league-average bullpen. Casual bettors don’t pay attention to the firemen, even though they’re more important than ever now that starters rarely go past six innings.

Mitch Keller (4.04 xFIP) has an awful 8-16 team record for a loss of 2.98 betting units, but that .328 BABIP against is begging for some positive regression – and sure enough, Keller led Pittsburgh to victory in each of his last two starts, on the road against the Brewers and Mets. Delicious.

The Moneyline Pick

It’s easy to see why our shiny new analytic models love the Pirates in this situation. This is the only game on Sunday’s slate where we’d recommend more than a fun-size moneyline bet on anyone. Maybe even 1.5 units? It depends how much intestinal fortitude you’ve got.

MLB Pick: Pirates ML (+183) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Pirates ML (+183)
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros

Sunday, September 11, 2022 - 02:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park

Ah, there’s nothing quite as much fun as fading the Astros. So what if they’ve already turned over much of the roster from their tainted 2017 World Series victory? They must pay for their sins, forever.

Teams Analysis

Los Angeles Angels

There’s not much to like about the Angels, either, but this is a team that could really use the extra 1.5 runs on the spread. As we go to press, the Halos are 14-24 in games decided by one run. Bad luck, yes, but their sad bullpen has to take some of the blame.

Tucker Davidson (5.92 xFIP) will probably need some relief. He’s walked more batters (6.42 per nine innings) than he’s struck out (5.53) thus far. But L.A. have split his last four starts, even if Houston lit him up last Sunday.

Houston Astros

Compare and contrast to Houston, who are 24-16 in 1-run games this year. Again, part of that is good luck, and part of that is their awesome bullpen, sitting at No. 3 on the WAR charts.

The good news for us is that one of the three Luis Garcias in the majors is pitching Sunday. This one has a 3.77 xFIP, racking up 1.64 units in earnings on a team record of 15-9, but that includes a 3-4 record in his last seven starts – and a 2-1 loss to the Angels last Saturday.

The Run Line Pick

The important thing about this game is that Shohei Ohtani isn’t pitching for the Angels. They’ve made an art form out of wasting his two-way talents.

MLB Pick: Angels +1.5 (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Angels RL +1.5 (+102)
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New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Sunday, September 11, 2022 - 01:40 PM EDT at loanDepot Park

Hey, it’s the Marlins again. They didn’t cash the Under for us last time, but maybe they’ll do better matched up with their next opponents, who don’t hit quite as well as the L.A. Dodgers – then again, no one does.

Teams Analysis

New York Mets

The Mets are sixth overall in hitting, but they slip to No. 15 when you focus on the past 30 days, and they’ve got Taijuan Walker (4.16 xFIP) ready to take the mound Sunday. He’s got the Under at 14-9-1 this year.

Miami Marlins

They still can’t hit (No. 26 overall), and their pitching is still pretty good, especially Jesus Luzardo (3.29 xFIP) and his tasty 10-3 Under record. Don’t bet against Jesus.

The Total Pick

Once again, we’ve got a tiny 7-run total on the board, but that +105 juice with the current MLB odds will help us out, as will the 10-mph winds blowing directly in from centerfield. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: Under 7 (+105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Under 7 (+105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.