It’s Sunday and we have a full slate of games on the horizon, so we’ve put together our favorite bets for our daily MLB picks. Let us know if you’re tailing these bets!
There are plenty of intriguing matchups so let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Sunday, September 04, 2022 – 04:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The Angels have been really bad eying talent. Take away Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, and the Angels are a terrible team.
Tucker Davidson will take the hill for the Angels. The left-handed pitcher is mainly a minor-league pitcher, but the Angels traded for him, hoping he could finally get over the hump. He hasn’t. He has a 7.07 xFIP in the last 30 days and has walked 16.1% of batters compared to his strikeout rate of 12.6%.
The Astros are hitting a .231 ISO with a wOBA of .350 against lefties in the last 30 days. The projected lineup has also walked nearly 10% of the time against lefties and struck out just 15.5%.
Alex Bregman has led the pack against lefties lately. The offense shouldn’t have a problem scoring runs today.
Negative Regression for Urquidy
On the flip side, Jose Urquidy will man the mound for the Astros. He might be 12-5. He might have an ERA of 3.69. But he’s been much worse lately.
Urquidy has an xFIP of 5.52 with just 19% of strikeouts. He’s allowed an ISO of .238 to lefties and an ISO of .208 to righties in the last 30 days. If the Angels are able to put the ball in play, things will be better. They’ve struck out 25.8% of the time but won’t be facing a high strikeout pitcher.
Therefore, give me the over in this one.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, September 04, 2022 - 07:08 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The Dodgers are going to ride with a bullpen game tonight. Caleb Ferguson will get the start, but we’ll also see plenty of Ryan Pepiot in tonight’s ESPN game.
The Dodgers will string together whatever they can against the Padres while San Diego will send out Mike Clevinger. Clevinger has had a 7.11 xFIP in the last 30 days with just 12.7% of strikeouts and 10% of walks.
Clevinger has also been lucky, holding a .231 BABAIP despite 27.7% of ground balls induced. The Dodgers have so much power in their lineup against Clevinger.
Meanwhile, Pepiot has struck out 25.8% of batters in the last 30 days. He’s been awful against lefties, but it’s not like Juan Soto has been an extra-base hit machine lately against righties.
Go with the Dodgers on the runline in this one for your last MLB pick.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Sunday, September 04, 2022 - 01:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
The New York Yankees are still looking for their 80th win of the season. The Yankees are 79-74 on the season and have allowed the Tampa Bay Rays to get within four games in the AL East division standings.
Tampa Bay will look for the series sweep in today’s ball game. But hold your horses.
Frankie Montas will take the mound for the Yankees. He’s 4-11 with a 3.94 ERA. The Yankees got him for moments like these. They simply need to win this game.
Montas has limited walks to 5.9% and is still getting nearly 45% of grounders. He’s struggling more against lefties in the last 30 days, and the only lefty having success at the plate right now is David Peralta, who has a .346 wOBA.
Montes has a good matchup where he could escape a lot of damage.
On the other hand, Shawn Armstrong will get the start for the Rays. He’s going to be an opener for Ryan Yarbrough, however.
Armstrong has a 2.87 xFIP with 30.6% of strikeouts. He’s been extremely good and should be able to shut everyone down not named Aaron Judge. The Yankees are terrible against righties but have more potential against lefties like Yarbrough.
The Yankees earn 12% of walks against lefties and have a wOBA of .280, which is much better than their wOBA against righties.
I like the Yankees at -117 as they look for win number 80. A win would also give them a five-game lead in the AL East.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.