Cubs vs. Giants MLB Free Picks and Preview

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The San Francisco Giants are on a seven-game losing streak after getting swept in back-to-back series by divisional opponents. Will a trip back home help the Giants get back on track against the Chicago Cubs? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants

Thursday, July 28, 2022 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park

The Story So Far

The Chicago Cubs have been pretty embarrassing this year, holding a 40-57 record. But nothing has been worse than the San Francisco Giants coming out extremely flat in the second half of the season. 

The Giants won 107 games last season and now find themselves at 48-50 on the season. They’ll start a new series against the Chicago Cubs, at home, looking to get back on track. But at this point, the Giants could end up being like the Cubs and sell off their assets. Things are getting interesting in San Francisco. 

Here are our MLB picks for the series opener between the Cubs and Giants. 

The Pitching Matchup

The San Francisco Giants will send out Alex Wood for tonight’s game. The left-hander has a 6-8 record with a 4.21 ERA on the season. However, he’s been better than that and currently has a 2.63 xFIP in the last 30 days. 

Wood has also struck out 30.1% of batters in that time frame while walking under 3% of batters. On top of that, Wood has earned nearly 50% of strikeouts. 

On the other hand, the Cubs will pitch their left-hander in Justin Steele. Steele has a 4-6 record with a 4.02 ERA on the year. However, in the last 30 days, Steele has a 4.87 xFIP and has allowed 12.4% of walks in that time frame. 

But like Wood, Steele has earned a high amount of grounders and has pitch good enough this season. 

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Giants look terrific on paper against lefties. However, to start the second of the season, nothing has worked out. The Giants have a .243 ISO and wOBA of .344 against lefties in the last 30 days. Only three batters are hitting a low ISO and wOBA in this lineup. 

However, the Giants have also struck out 27% of the time against lefties. That has hurt them with runners in scoring position throughout the last 30 days. They’re also hitting just 32.7% of grounders with 22.5% of line drives. 

That’ll be interesting knowing that Steele is a big ground-ball pitcher. 

Meanwhile, the Cubs have also done well against lefties. They’ve hit a .247 ISO and wOBA of .378 against lefties in the last 30 days. The lineup isn’t going to look the same in a week. But for now, this lineup is raking against lefties, with only one player hitting an ISO of below .167 in the last 30 days. 

That one player in Frank Schwindel, who is a righty that just came off the Injured List. He also has potential like the rest of the lineup. The Cubs will be all right-handed and should hit for power against Wood. 

Game Prediction

Wood has been tremendous recently with a low xFIP, high strikeout rate and low walk rate. He’s also done very well inducing ground balls. However, he’s giving up 23.2% of line drive contact and has allowed a .211 ISO to righties in his last 74 plate appearances against them. 

The Cubs have hit 28.2% of line drives against lefties in the last 30 days and have a .247 ISO as a projected lineup against lefties in that time frame. The Cubs have a ton of potential against Wood, despite how well he’s pitched. 

On the other hand, the Giants look great against lefties on paper. However, in the second half of the season, they’ve faced plenty of lefties and haven’t capitalized. Steele has been much worse against lefties, as a left-handed pitcher and will likely only face two lefties in the Giants’ lineup. 

Plus, the Giants have struck out 27% of the time against lefties, which is just extremely high. Steele isn’t the biggest strikeout thrower in the game but he’ll earn them against this Giants lineup. 

The Pick

Even at home, I don’t think the Giants are good enough anymore. This lineup is not producing against lefties since returning from the All-Star break.

Meanwhile, the Cubs have better numbers against lefties and also have the better matchup with power numbers.

Therefore, with my MLB Play of the Day, I’ll take the Cubs at +120 against the Giants in tonight’s game. I’m over the Giants. They should sell their assets at this point.

MLB Pick: Cubs (+120) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.