Cubs vs. Giants Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Free Pick

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Christopher Morel #5 of the Chicago Cubs attempting to steal third base gets caught tagged out by David Villar #70 of the San Francisco Giants. Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images/AFP

The San Francisco Giants will look to earn a series win over the Chicago Cubs, at home, while going back to .500 on the season. With the Giants rally behind Carlos Rodon in tonight’s game?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us for this matchup!

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants

Sunday, July 31, 2022 – 07:08 PM EDT at Oracle Park

Series Recap

The San Francisco Giants held on against the Chicago Cubs, to win 5-4 in the third game of their four-game series. The Giants have now won two of the first three against the Cubs and will be looking to get back to .500.

The Cubs will be selling off their roster very shortly while the Giants are in a weird spot right now. The Giants, near .500, could still shoot for a Wild Card spot or they can sell off their roster, improve their farm depth and look at next year’s potential.

However, if the Giants continue to lose, they won’t have to worry about trying to figure out what they want to do. Here are our picks and predictions for tonight’s game which will be broadcast on ESPN.

The Pitching Match-Up

It’ll be Adrian Sampson on the hill for the Cubs in tonight’s game. Sampson has been impressive recently despite holding a 0-1 record with a 3.20 ERA on the season.

In the last 30 days, Sampson has:

  • A 5.26 xFIP
  • 13.2% of strikeouts
  • 5.8%. of walks

Righties have a .366 wOBA against Sampson in his last 49 plate appearances against them but overall, if Sampson can keep walks down as he has, things will be okay for him.

On the other hand, Carlos Rodon will get the start for the Giants. Rodon is a lefty that could be on the move at the trade deadline if the Giants become sellers. He’s 8-6 on the season with a 3.18 ERA on the year. In the last 30 days, he’s been even better, holding a 3.86 xFIP while earning 34.1% of strikeouts.

Rodon has limited power against both sides of the plate and has pitched very well throughout the season. 

Who has the more Favorable Lineup?

The Cubs are hitting a .247 ISO and wOBA of .371 against lefties in the last 30 days. While it is true that Rodon isn’t a “normal” lefty, as he’s one of the best in the game, the Cubs have hit lefties extremely well.

However, sometimes, the Cubs struggle to put the wood on the ball, striking out 31.8% of the time against them. Rodon could earn double-digits in strikeouts against the Cubs lineup.

Strikeouts Galore

Meanwhile, the Giants have been awful against righties in the last 30 days. They’re hitting a .124 ISO and wOBA of .274 with their projected lineup. On top of that, the Giants have struck out 25.6% of the time.

The Giants won’t be punched out as much as the Cubs, but Sampson has the ability to earn a high amount of strikeouts against this lineup. San Francisco has limited ground balls in the last 30 days and will be hitting many fly balls in tonight’s game instead.

Game Prediction

Sampson has dominated lefties in the last 30 days, holding opponents to a .253 wOBA and ISO of .103 in his last 72 plate appearances. The Giants should ultimately have six of them in the lineup against Sampson, who is a right-handed pitcher.

That’s an interesting tid-bit. The Cubs have a lot of righties on their roster that pitch well against lefties. Sampson is one of them.

Sampson is a below-average pitcher who has been getting the job done recently, despite what the analytics are saying. If he keeps his walks down against the Giants, he won’t struggle.

Consider Some Player Props on Rodon

Meanwhile, the Cubs' bottom portion of their order has a ton of extra-base potential. However, the entire Cubs lineup also has the potential to strike out a whole lot, especially against Rodon, who has earned 34.1% of strikeouts in the first place.

Rodon could strike out one batter every three plate appearances in this game. He figures to see over around 25 batters or more in tonight’s game. 

The Pick

I’ve been impressed with Sampson on the mound lately and believe the Cubs will really struggle to score against Rodon. It’s going to be strikeout central for the Cubs against a very good strikeout pitcher.

Therefore, the under looks to be the play in this game. With my MLB Pick of the Day, I’m taking the Under 7.5 at -120.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 7.5 (-120)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.