Cardinals vs. Red Sox Free MLB Picks for June 18

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Kutter Crawford #50 of the Boston Red Sox pitches against the Seatle Mariners. Abbie Parr/Getty Images/AFP

After a win last night, can the Boston Red Sox hold on for the second straight game against the St. Louis Cardinals in this interleague matchup in Fenway Park?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox

Saturday, June 18, 2022 – 07:15 PM EDT at Fenway Park

Cardinals and Red Sox Series

The Boston Red Sox snuck by the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday, winning 6-5, despite allowing four runs in the ninth inning.

The bullpen has been an issue for the Red Sox this season, but after a slow start in April, winning hasn’t been all that hard for Boston recently.

Can the Cardinals get back on track on the road and use their ninth-inning momentum to get a win tonight?

Here are our betting picks and predictions for Saturday’s game between the Cardinals and Red Sox.

Who Is Pitching for the Red Sox Today?

Kutter Crawford will get the start for the Red Sox at home.

  • Crawford is 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA on the season.
  • Throughout the year, Crawford has an xFIP of 5.66 with 16% of walks. However, he’s really only struggled against lefties this year.
  • Against lefties, Crawford has allowed a .363 wOBA and ISO of .233. But against righties, he’s held teams to a .306 wOBA and ISO of .030.

Who Is Pitching for the Cardinals Today?

On the other hand, Dakota Hudson will man the mound for the Cardinals.

  • He has a 4.83 xFIP in the last 30 days with 13.4% of strikeouts and 8.4% of walks.
  • He’s earned 55.4% of ground balls but has also allowed close to 22% of line drives in the last 30 days.
  • Hudson has limited wOBA and ISO against both sides of the plate but will have a challenge against this Red Sox lineup.

Red Sox Lineup Analysis

The Red Sox have averaged a .351 wOBA in the last 30 days against righties. Boston is currently also hitting 24.1% of line drives in the last 30 days against righties and should be able to put the ball in play against Hudson in this game.

Rafael Devers has a .342 ISO and wOBA of .472 against righties in his last 86 plate appearances.

He’s really the biggest bat in the lineup for the Red Sox but they’ve also got six other batters hitting a .328 wOBA or higher against righties in those last 30 days.

Cardinals Lineup Analysis

On the other hand, the Cardinals will only have four lefties in the lineup against Crawford. Brendan Donovan has a .384 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days but ultimately, the four lefties in the lineup don’t have all that much power against righties.

If Crawford limits power against those lefties, the thought is that Crawford will be able to escape this game with limited damage against this Cardinals lineup that has a .160 ISO and wOBA of .339 in the last 30 days.

But if you take away Paul Goldschmidt, the Cardinals’ numbers would look pretty unappealing.

Cardinals vs. Red Sox: Game Prediction

Crawford might have the worse ERA of the two pitchers tonight, but eventually, Hudson is going to regress.

He’s not earning a high amount of strikeouts and has walked a solid amount of batters this season. While Hudson has been able to induce ground balls, he’s also allowing nearly 22% of line-drive contact.

Red Sox's Line Against Righties

The Red Sox have hit over 24% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days and knowing Hudson, the Red Sox should be able to put the ball in play, get hard hits, and turn those hard hits into RBIs and runs.

Crawford is nothing special either, but he’s been able to hold righties down with limited power and a low enough weighted on-base average.

Again, none of the lefties in the Cardinals lineup have been consistent with power and only Brendan Donovan has a wOBA that is elevated against righties in the last 30 days with a .384 number.

Red Sox Five Lefties

Therefore, I’m going to take my chances with the Red Sox and their lineup. Boston will have five lefties in the lineup against Hudson and will have more potential to put the ball in play with solid contact with Hudson.

Hudson has a 3.29 ERA but an xFIP nearing 5 in the last 30 days. Fenway Park isn’t going to treat him well.

MLB Pick for Today

I’ll grab the Red Sox on the F5 moneyline for my MLB pick of the day. I’m not going to sweat the Boston bullpen tonight.

I like the pitching matchup between Hudson and Crawford and will bet on the Red Sox to get that F5 moneyline win.

MLB Pick: Red Sox (-120) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.