Cardinals vs. Cubs Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Free Pick

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Giovanny Gallegos #65 and Yadier Molina #4 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrate after their team win over the Chicago Cubs in Game Two of a doubleheader at Wrigley Field. (Photo by NUCCIO DINUZZO / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Cardinals and Cubs will play their fifth game in four days. With both teams winning two games a piece, tonight’s game is the rubber match of a five-game series. Can the Cardinals earn the final win on the road? 

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top-rated sportsbooks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs 

Sunday, June 05, 2022 – 7:08 PM EDT at Wrigley Field 

After a long series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs, we’re finally approaching the end of it all. The Cardinals and Cubs have each added two wins to their resume in the last three days. Whoever wins tonight’s game will win the series, 3-2.  

The Cardinals are 31-23 on the season while the Cubs are just 23-31 on the year. Can you trust the Cubs, at home, against a playoff-caliber team like the Cardinals? Here are our picks and predictions for ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball game.  

The Pitching Match-Up 

The Cubs will send out left-hander Justin Steele. He’s 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA on the season. However, Steele has pitched better recently, with a 3.86 xFIP in the last 30 days. 

Steele has also earned 31.6% of strikeouts in the last 30 days but has struggled to keep walks down. He also isn’t earning a ton of ground balls and is giving up over 26% of line drives in that same time frame.  

On the other hand, Adam Wainwright will get the call for the Cardinals. He’s got a 4.99 xFIP in the last 30 days but has allowed a BABIP of just .232 in that same time frame. Wainwright has been very lucky as he has a 2.75 ERA on the season. The old man just keeps improving, apparently.  

Who has the more Favorable Lineup? 

St. Louis still has the more impactful lineup analytically. The Cardinals have struggled to find power against lefties.

The Cardinals were dominant against lefties to begin the same. However, some things have changed since the beginning of the year. The Cardinals only have a .099 ISO and wOBA of .313 against lefties in the last 30 days with the projected lineup. 

However, St. Louis is still striking out just 14.7% of the time while walking 11.9% of the time in the last 30 days against lefties. 

Meanwhile, the Cubs have not been great against righties either in the last 30 days. The projected lineup has a .139 ISO and wOBA of .283 against righties in that time frame. Chicago is hitting more ground balls, lacking line drives and ultimately only walking 8.3% of the time.  

Game Prediction 

The Cubs have not been able to find much offense at the bottom of the order. We like to call lineups like these, rally killers. The six through nine spots in the Cubs order are all hitting below a .115 ISO and wOBA of .285 or worse. When the top half of the order gets on, the bottom half won’t be able to bring them home. 

Wainwright is giving up some power to righties with a .194 ISO in the last 30 days, however. Ultimately, William Contreras, Frank Schwindel, and Patrick Wisdom would be the three premier bats for the Cubs in this game. Any three of those guys can hit a homer off Wainwright.  

On the other hand, Steele has been all over the place. However, he’s kept power down and has limited wOBA to both sides at a good enough rate. 

The Cardinals haven’t hit for power recently but they have limited strikeouts and added nearly 12% of walks in the last 30 days. If the Cardinals don’t strike out against Steele, they’ll be able to string together a couple of base hits here and there along with earning walks to score some runs in this game.  

The Pick 

Steele has been a bit unlucky while Wainwright has been lucky this season. However, I still like how the Cardinals matchup against Steele, who is a lefty.  

The Cardinals will have eight righties in the lineup and throughout the year, the Cardinals have really done damage against some of the best lefties in the league. 

On the other hand, Wainwright might not have his best start, but he’s been limiting damage almost every game despite not having the best stuff.  

I’ll ride the St. Louis Cardinals with my MLB pick of the day. I’m still going to pounce on the Cardinals when they face a lefty, despite low ISO numbers recently.  

MLB Pick: Cardinals (-140) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Cardinals (-140)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.