Cardinals vs. Braves Free MLB Picks and Preview

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Austin Romine #35 of the St. Louis Cardinals tags out Travis d'Arnaud #16 of the Atlanta Braves. Brett Davis/Getty Images/AFP

The Atlanta Braves continue to get closer to first place in the NL East standings. After a dominating performance on Tuesday, the Braves will look to win a four-game series a little earlier tonight.

Is Atlanta a good pick for tonight? Let’s see what the MLB odds are for tonight’s matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves

Wednesday, July 06, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park

BMR's Betting Pulse

The Atlanta Braves are inching closer to first place in the NL East after another win last night against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Atlanta is currently 48-34 and will have their ace on the mound tonight, at home, against the red birds.

The Cardinals have been hot and cold this season and are currently just five games above .500.

Can the Cardinals earn a win tonight against the Braves? Here is our pick and prediction for tonight’s game between the Braves and Cardinals.

The Pitching Match-Up

The Atlanta Braves will send left-hander Max Fried to the mound for tonight’s game. Fried is currently 8-2 with a 2.66 ERA on the season. He’s been consistently good all year and will probably continue with his success tonight. In the last 30 days, the left-hander has:

  • An xFIP of 2.97
  • 27.8% of strikeouts
  • Just 3.2% of walks

On the other hand, Miles Mikolas will get his start for the Cardinals. Mikolas has been a solid surprise for the Cardinals this year, holding a 5-6 record but an ERA of 2.61. In the last 30 days, Mikolas has a 4.20 xFIP, which is still above average, along with high strikeouts and low walks.

He’s been impressive recently.

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Braves have dominated right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Atlanta has a .234 ISO and a wOBA of .351 in that time frame but has walked just 6.5% of the time while striking out 21.2% of the time.

Mikolas has limited power from both sides of the plate this season, therefore the Braves might not get the same power that they’re used to against righties tonight. However, Eddie Rosario could be in the lineup for the Braves tonight, which would add another left-handed bat in the lineup against a righty.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have an ISO of .202 and a wOBA of .337 in the last 30 days against lefties. Without Dylan Carlson, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado, the Cardinals lineup would look absolutely horrible. Only those three bats have been consistent against righties in the last 30 days.

Game Prediction

We should have a really good pitching matchup on our hands. Realistically, both lines still project to be better than the average, but with two pitchers on the mound holding ERA’s around 2.60, it’s hard to like the over in this game.

Fried has limited power from both sides of the plate and has also limited weighted on-base averages from both sides of the plate. He’s allowing more line drives to lefties recently and will likely only have to take on one lefty in the lineup.

On the other hand, Mikolas isn’t earning a high amount of strikeouts against left-handed hitters. But he’ll likely face just three lefties in the lineup between Matt Olson, Eddie Rosario, and Michael Harris.

The Pick

The Braves have hit just 39.1% of ground balls in the last 30 days but have also only hit 21.6% of line drives in the last 30 days against righties.

  • Travis D’Arnaud has hit just 8.5% of line drives
  • Matt Olson has hit only 18% of line drives
  • Marcell Ozuna has hit just 17% of line drives

The Braves’ middle of the order hasn’t been hitting for quality lately and has a BABIP that is low along with low walks.

On the other hand, if Fried can get around those three consistent bats in the Cardinals lineup, he’ll have six other batters that should be a lot easier to pitch to. The rest of the lineup has really lacked power lately and just like the Braves, also don’t walk very much. Both teams are probably too aggressive for their own good.

Therefore, with my MLB Pick of the Day, I’m taking under 8.5 in this game. We’ve got two consistent pitchers on the mound with ERAs way below 3.

MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 8.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.