Brewers vs. Mets MLB Free Picks and Preview

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Tylor Megill #38 of the New York Mets pitches during the third inning against the Atlanta Braves. Jim McIsaac/Getty Images/AFP

The New York Mets will look to win another home series as they take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the final game of a three-game series. With the series tied at one, the rubber match is up for grabs. Which team has the advantage? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets

Thursday, June 16, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field

The Milwaukee Brewers bounced back in a big way on Wednesday, defeating the New York Mets, 10-2, in the second game of a three-game series. 

With that win, the Brewers now have a chance to knock off the Mets in a series, on the road, which has been a hard feat this season. 

Although the Mets continue to fall in the NL East standings, with a win, the Mets would have another series win and would still have a solid 4.5-game lead in the NL East. 

What should we expect tonight? Here are our picks and predictions for Thursday’s game between the Mets and Brewers. 

The Pitching Matchup

The Brewers will send Aaron Ashby to the mound for the rubber match. Ashby has been electric thanks to a hot stretch in the last 30 days. 

In those 30 days, Ashby has a 2.65 xFIP with 27.9% of strikeouts and 5.8% of walks allowed. He’s induced 65.2% of grounders in that same time frame while allowing just 17.4% of line drives. 

On the other hand, Tylor Megill just returned from injury in his last start. In that start, he finished with 25% of strikeouts and 54.5% of ground balls. He was effective through 16 plate appearances. On the year, Megill is 4-2 with a 4.50 ERA while Ashby is 1-5 with a 3.91 ERA.

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

Against lefties, the Mets have a .137 ISO with a wOBA of .345. The Mets have hit line drives against lefties nearly 25% of the time with their projected lineup and continue to limit strikeouts at a very high rate.

In the last 30 days, the Mets have only struck out 15.3% of the time against lefties. It’ll be interesting to see how they perform against a good strikeout thrower like Ashby. 

Meanwhile, the Brewers have a .138 ISO with a wOBA of just .273 against righties in the last 30 days. Only Omar Narvaez has an elevated wOBA number against righties. Every other batter has a .312 wOBA or worse in the last 30 days against righties. They’re also hitting just 17.7% of line drives in that time frame as a projected lineup. 

Game Prediction

Although Aaron Ashby has been elite in the last 30 days, it looks like the Mets will still get more production out of their lineup. 

The Mets only have three batters striking out over 15.4% of the time against lefties and have seven batters hitting at least 18.8% of line drives against lefties in the last 30 days. 

Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar are the two most consistent bats in the Mets lineup against lefties. Alonso has a .391 ISO and wOBA of .419 against lefties in the last 30 days while Escobar has a .412 ISO and wOBA of .493 against lefties in that same time frame. 

On the other hand, there’s not much to like out of this Brewers lineup. Milwaukee came alive last night against the bad portion of the Mets bullpen, but those guys won’t be pitching in a close game.

Tylor Megill has been special this year and will take on a Brewers lineup that hasn’t made very good contact against righties in the last 30 days. Only five of the nine batters in the lineup are hitting hard-hit balls consistent against righties and only three batters in the Brewers lineup are walking at an above-average rate. 

Willy Adames, Jace Peterson, and Tyrone Taylor have some power against righties but are limited when it comes to wOBA. 

The Pick

With that said, I like the Mets to win the rubber match of the three-game series. Milwaukee has elite pitching but so do the Mets, when it comes down to it. Yesterday, the Mets threw out their worst pitchers due to a blowout type of game.

Don’t buy into the Brewers' offense waking up against triple-A pitching. The Mets should be able to shut down the Brewers, who couldn’t hit a righty in all nine innings in the first game of the series when they faced Chris Bassitt. 

I’ll be taking the New York Mets for my MLB pick of the day. The Mets are sitting at -135, at home, to win the home series. It’s a solid price knowing the Mets should be able to work walks, get on base, and score some runs against the lefty. You can’t say the same about the Brewers. 

MLB Pick: Mets (-135) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Mets (-135)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.